Platinum trend still solid | 19 March 2021
Platinum Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.
PLATINUM FORECAST
(Previous week in brackets)
| Platinum USD | Monthly | Weekly | Daily | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1196 (1203) ↑6.8% |
||||||
| PT Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↑) | |||
| PT % Risk Weight |
84 (84) | 60 (65) | 74 (48) | |||
| PM Distribution Total allocation 50% (55%) |
Pt:35% | Ag:30% | Au:35% | |||
Platinum / USD live price
Platinum comment
19 March 2021 close: No matter what happens to Platinum short term, The long term Monthly risk weight trend is showing a leading uptrend which has not yet shown a major top with subsequent bearish divergence pattern. Such pattern is to be expected historically and provides comfort to be very patient with the position even though short term Monthly is now showing a downtrend from a median high level risk percentage of 85%. It may be several years before we reach the next primary peak. After severe and prolonged weakness during the past 10 years any volatile price correction would be opportunity to build a slightly larger position. Platinum of course has similar properties as Palladium which has again made serious headlines as prices rallied strongly during last week. Palladium is a high demand commodity and more difficult and expensive to trade as a physical precious metal. Hence no interest as a medium term investment. We expect Palladium's days to be numbered once China also looks to reduce carbon emission by replacing fossil fuels in cars with batteries. The China market is still growing and keeping demand for Palladium high for now.
12 March 2021 close: Platinum has come out of a very deep valley where we have taken a contrarian view to build an equal position to Silver and Gold. This now results in a technical picture that could and will lead to several corrections along that road to recovery. That recovery has already come a long way and should take Platinum to levels that we have been more used to over many decades. PT is the Rolls Royce metal for reasons of scarcity, store of value and commercial use. The price is still too low and we remember the fundamental arguments why Platinum should be the weaker metal only 9 months ago. The key here too is patience as we need to see bearish divergence developing in long term time frames. The high Monthly risk reading at 85% therefore is of no real concern.
GOLD/PLATINUM Ratio Price Risk Charts & Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
| Gold Platinum ratio | Monthly | Weekly | Daily | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 146 (143) ↑ 2.0% |
||||||
| Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↓) | |||
| % Risk Weight |
9 (13) | 17 (22) | 32 (97) | |||
| PM Distribution Total allocation 50% (55%) |
Pt:35% | Ag:30% | Au:35% | |||
Gold/Platinum Ratio Charts
Daily Ratio 19 March
As argued last week, Platinum may need a bit of space to build for the next move towards equilibrium
Weekly Ratio 19 March
Weekly risk weight also indicates a potential pause from the strong correction initiated in March 2020 and into March 2021 from 2.40 to 1.40. That correction will eventually bring Platinum back to where it belongs historically. Around 1.00. Platinum also has commodity use properties similar to Palladium which should help to complete this long term correction.
Monthly Ratio 19 March
Monthly risk weight is deep but not finished. A low risk percentage, as seen in previous decades, is not a recipe for a major price correction. We must give benefit of doubt to a longer correction based on this technical picture until we actually see that price correction materializing. Besides, we should expect bullish risk to price divergence before a primary trend changes direction.
Qrtly Ratio 19 March
Quarterly risk weight continues its downtrend and can be considered a leading indicator which drags shorter time frames in its wave. Of course one cannot trade based on long term indicators as they are primarily used to develop patience and stay committed to that long term trend.
Daily Ratio 12 March
The bearish divergence between short and medium/long term risk resulted in a very decent correction pushing Platinum some 3.5% higher versus gold last week. This pair may be seeking a bit more space before the next move in favor of PT unfolds.
Weekly Ratio 12 March
Medium term risk weight turned back down last week. This continues to give momentum for the longer term time scales which are still pointing strongly down.
Monthly Ratio 12 March
Monthly risk weight is coming into a low risk danger zone but isn't finished. We may expect more pressure in coming months with a few more corrections as we have seen in recent weeks.
Qrtly Ratio 12 March
In this major Platinum correction since March 2020 we should expect quarterly risk weight to turn into a much lower risk zone. It is impossible to forecast how that translates to price. We could as easily see some serious fireworks before the summer holidays or a lackluster development with Platinum reaching an interim peak closer to current levels. For now PT continues to look stronger in the precious metals space.