Daily divergence  vs Weekly and Monthly risk was being reduced on Friday as Platinum picked up steam after a lackluster week on a mild downslope. Trend is down and we could see another pause at around 1.40 to extend the more complex correction that started in February. Short term downtrend is most likely to comntinue into the coming week. No Change

Weekly risk is pushing Gold/Platinum into price consolidation. The Risk chart above can go either way, but with Daily in downtrend the more likely scenario is sideways risk this coming week.

The sharp downtrend in Monthly risk hasn't finished. On May 1st our algo will drop of the fourteenth month which is March 2020 which was the peak month for the Gold/Pt ratio but still closing strong at 2.20. We would expect to see a bit more pressure before a more medium term correction takes place. No Change in staying with the current downtrend.

We would expect the current risk trend to dive close or just below 10% before turning. This probably would require a ratio level of 1.35 to be printed after a lower daily bottom is registered. Sometime later in May perhaps. Patience to stay with Platinum until it reaches  the desired minimum equilibrium level of 1:1. Our Platinum allocation and this specific analysis is to not deny the opportunity to benefit from the huge divergence that developed over the past 8 years. Physical platinum, which is the heaviest (precious) metal in nature, therefore is a critical and low risk hold.

Platinum risk weight on Daily moved sharply higher which is a signal that this market is 'just' correcting or pausing short term. In major cycles, the depth of any price move in the opposite direction is always difficult to predict. For now no reason the consider any kind of reversal of the Platinum trend up vs Gold.

As we can see, since 2016 we have seen many sharp risk weight corrections based on relatively minor price moves. The picture looks similar, but we could experience a slightly longer (a few weeks) correction as the trend is currently up. Daily may keep the lid on though. No change to long term outlook of reaching parity with Gold.

As long as the risk weight trend is down we have to rely on shorter term time scales to determine an exit. As seen in 2013 reaching a risk weight bottom may still push prices down for another 2 or even 3 months. How far down cannot be predicted. Direction is more important than price. We must not 'bottom pick' an investment as long as long term risk trends are down. The objective is parity with Gold which usually means an even larger move, but time will tell.

The quarterly risk weigh trend is moving into the low risk range. The trend is still down however and as clearly visible in the chart above from various moves over the past 50 years it could be many quarters before we reach the end of the current GOLD/PLATINUM cycle. If we have to make a prediction which in itself is pretty useless: a minimum of 2 years up to 5.