Platinum appears to have shrugged off the recent attack | 15 October


Platinum Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.

PLATINUM FORECAST

(Previous week in brackets)

Platinum USD Monthly Weekly Daily
1055 (1027)
PT Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
PT % Risk
Weight
39 (39) 42 (22) 82 (71)
Total PM
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
breakdown:
Pt:16% Ag:12% Au:12%

Platinum / USD live price



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Platinum comment

15 October 2021 close Platinum continued its stronger performance in the precious metals space where outside of precious metals Copper seems to have broken out strongly to the upside. Interestingly the Monthly time interval for Platinum/USD is still down but at a level where it provides so much room for appreciation towards that long awaited equilibrium with gold again. Here too we should expect Monthly risk weight to show bearish divergence, at least once, before we reach a major top in the current primary cycle that started early last year. Based on the current uptrend trend for Platinum in Gold/Platinum and the Platinum/Silver ratios we quietly maintain our present slight overweight physical PT allocation at 16% of total.

08 October 2021 close The stronger action in Platinum towards the end of last week suggests someone else has followed our lead making a swap between Gold/Silver in favor of Platinum. Platinum and Palladium both rallied to close over 5% higher where Gold and Silver remained largely unchanged. Leading forecast indicator is medium term weekly which started an uptrend from a bullish divergence confirmation in lower risk quartile with Daily and Monthly and Quarterly risk allowing enough room for appreciation too without showing a visible contrarian to Weekly risk scenario. Hence remain very positive on the Platinum position against all major currencies.

PlatinumUSD (Interim) Quarterly

GOLD/PLATINUM Ratio Price Risk Trend

(Previous update in brackets)

Gold Platinum ratio Monthly Weekly Daily
1.6742 (1.7101)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
40 (42) 34 (44) 17 (9)
Total PM
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
breakdown:
Pt:16% Ag:12% Au:12%

Gold/Platinum Ratio Charts

Oct 15 Even though the Daily Gold/Platinum ratio is up from last week, the trend is actually down following a sharp mid-week correction up to 50% risk weight and turning down again. All time intervals are now showing downtrends for the Gold/Platinum ratio and this is still the preferred long term trend and the main reason to have slight overweight physical Platinum in the core precious metals portfolio. We should expect some volatility, up and down, waiting for the right moment to re-allocate once we see the main trend confirmed again with a fresh Platinum high versus Gold.

Oct 08 Platinum versus Gold gained 5.4% for the week at Friday's close with all time intervals now trending down again. Eespecially the medium and longer term time scales have enough potential to push the ratio down further. The Monthly and Quarterly charts below show a black horizontal line that represents the average closing price of the Gold/Platinum ration since 1968 which in all time intervals sits in the 0.86 handle. We expect this level to be crossed at some point in the not too distant future or within 4 to 5 years. From the current level of 1.71 to 0.86 would be excactly 100% appreciation of the investment. No change to our slight overweight Platinum position vs Gold.

Daily AU/PT Ratio 15 October

Weekly AU/PT Ratio 15 October


PLATINUM/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Trend

(Previous update in brackets)

Gold Platinum ratio Monthly Weekly Daily
45.35 (45.39)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
67 (60) 88 (93) 71 (88)
Total PM
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
breakdown:
Pt:16% Ag:12% Au:12%

Platinum/Silver Ratio Charts

Oct 15 Little change as Platinum held mostly on to last week's gain against silver which recovered from market performance disappointment. It is very hard to be patient, but in this fragile manipulated financial market that is what it needs. Patience! We see risk weight still strongly up and appreciating on the longer term Monthly and Quarterly time period intervals (not shown below) and are looking to reach an intermediate ratio high around 55 which may be a good time to balance the precious metals position again and remove the opportunity Platinum overweight trade. No Change for now. We will update our blog as markets trigger a tradable event again.

Oct 08 Platinum gained over 4% again versus silver with the latter looking to get overbought in Daily and Weekly time intervals. The trend however is clearly up and with our Platinum/Silver ratio equlibrium since 1968 at the 73 (!) handle level, as shown by the black horizontal line on the medium and long term time scale charts, we stay with the slight overweight physical Platinum position until we get a clear medium or longer term signal that this trend is to make a serious intermdiate peak.
Note: The Monthly and Quarterly chart risk weight chart looks a little different due to an data error in May 2020. This has now been corrected and actually indicates a stronger Platinum still, although the feeling is that Silver in its own right should perform better in current economic conditions. History learns that Platinum often takes a lead on price development in the precious metals space. No Change.

Daily Platinum/Silver Ratio 15/10

Weekly Platinum/Silver Ratio 15/10

 



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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, PLATINUM FORECAST 2021 | EYEFORGOLD.

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