Platinum closes lower where all precious metals close off the highs again | 22 October

Platinum Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.

PLATINUM FORECAST

(Previous week in brackets)

22 October 2021 close Platinum's stronger performance from the past 2 weeks could not be sustained as we witnessed a few percentage points correction down for Platinum in its ratio against Gold and Silver. The longer term picture however is looking increasingly positive even thouugh monthly risk weight is still down. But Monthly and Quarterly risk have created enough space to turn into a bullish trend again once the 1 year consolidation ends and send Platinum to where it belongs; at least 1:1 against Gold. The current low Platinum price should develop a much larger interest for different and qualified industrial use. As Platinum liquidity is so much lower than Gold, the chances of our long term outlook becoming reality are high. Hence patience for this event to unfold during the coming year(s). No Change.

15 October 2021 close Platinum continued its stronger performance in the precious metals space where outside of precious metals Copper seems to have broken out strongly to the upside. Interestingly the Monthly time interval for Platinum/USD is still down but at a level where it provides so much room for appreciation towards that long awaited equilibrium with gold again. Here too we should expect Monthly risk weight to show bearish divergence, at least once, before we reach a major top in the current primary cycle that started early last year. Based on the current uptrend trend for Platinum in Gold/Platinum and the Platinum/Silver ratios we quietly maintain our present slight overweight physical PT allocation at 16% of total.

GOLD/PLATINUM Ratio Price Risk Trend

(Previous update in brackets)

Gold/Platinum Ratio Charts

Oct 22 The Gold/Platinum ratio paused and corrected again finishing in a Daily risk weight uptrend after short term bullish divergence. This is not being confirmed by the longer term time intervals which then decides that we do not react to just short term corrections. The long term outlook is for Platinum to reach 1:1 against Gold, which is a historically sure bet given time. No Change to maintaing PT overweight in our allocation.

Oct 15 Even though the Daily Gold/Platinum ratio is up from last week, the trend is actually down following a sharp mid-week correction up to 50% risk weight and turning down again. All time intervals are now showing downtrends for the Gold/Platinum ratio and this is still the preferred long term trend and the main reason to have slight overweight physical Platinum in the core precious metals portfolio. We should expect some volatility, up and down, waiting for the right moment to re-allocate once we see the main trend confirmed again with a fresh Platinum high versus Gold.

PLATINUM/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Trend

(Previous update in brackets)

Platinum/Silver Ratio Charts

Oct 22 Silver climbed 5% versus Platinum after a strong mid week Silver rally. Technically tempting to re-adjust the overweight PT with Silver, but our long term outlook should minimise any short term opportunity losses which are hard to trade in the physical precious metals market as full margin switching can be quite expensive. Most time intervals do confirm that this correction against Platinum may last a bit longer. The current ratio of 43.00 is still far below the 50 year average close of just over 73.00. If short term trading the exit from PT overweight would have been triggered mid last week. Now we are looking at a mere short term unrealized opportunity loss. We put our long term position on hold as long as the naked Platinum/USD price remains above 900 or the equivalent in other fiat currency, in our own case the EURO. No Change.

Oct 15 Little change as Platinum held mostly on to last week's gain against silver which recovered from market performance disappointment. It is very hard to be patient, but in this fragile manipulated financial market that is what it needs. Patience! We see risk weight still strongly up and appreciating on the longer term Monthly and Quarterly time period intervals (not shown below) and are looking to reach an intermediate ratio high around 55 which may be a good time to balance the precious metals position again and remove the opportunity Platinum overweight trade. No Change for now. We will update our blog as markets trigger a tradable event again.