Platinum is first metal to attempt a rally in the precious metals space | 24 September


Platinum Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.

PLATINUM FORECAST

(Previous week in brackets)

Platinum USD Monthly Weekly Daily
982 (955)
PT Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
PT % Risk
Weight
45 (42) 14 (15) 62 (15)
Total PM
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
Pt:40% Ag:30% Au:30%

Platinum / USD live price



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Platinum comment

24 September 2021 close Following a long period of relative weakness Platinum is the first metal to attempt a mild rally in the precious metals space. Last Monday upon Silver turning down sharply, Platinum was driven towards the $900 handle during European evening and US lunchtime. On Tuesday the price recovered towards the previous week's close, then rallying towards the $1000 level mid week. A strong and also expected recovery given the very short term oversold position of Platinum versus Gold and Silver. Our 10% gold and Silver swap into Platinum the previous week ended the week stronger, but as this is an opportunity trade we may push it back to equal weighting again if we get a decent Platinum rally. For now no change because at least two of all longer term risk weight times scales need to show bearish divergence triggered by a much higher price peak than seen in February 2021.

17 September 2021 close Last Monday as mentioned in last week's comment we did switch 10% of our Gold and Silver holdings into Platinum. This brings the Gold/Silver allocation to 60% with 30% each and Platinum to 40%.
The precious metals market still looks vulnerable, but serves as critical insurance whilst we attempt to let the balance of the portfolio work harder without much risk as the portfolio still has a large cushion with 15% cash.The current level of Platinum is still or again historically low compared with Gold and Silver. A low risk opportunity to hold medium term.

PlatinumUSD (Interim) Quarterly

GOLD/PLATINUM Ratio Price Risk Trend

(Previous update in brackets)

Gold Platinum ratio Monthly Weekly Daily
1.7795 (1.8633)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
51 (49) 67 (83) 18 (67)
Total PM
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
Pt:40% Ag:30% Au:30%

Gold/Platinum Ratio Charts

Sept 24Daily risk weight took a dive as Platinum rose about 4% versus gold last week. Medium and Long term risk weight have a great deal more room and time to develop a weaker Gold vs Platinum ratio. Happy to stay with the 10% PT overweight for now.

Sept 17 Platinum reached a clear short oversold condition last week where we felt a rising opportunity to accumulate a bit more whilst the market is weak. The market has now turned and may consolidate a bit more. The broader picture is waiting for long term signals to first reach serious overbought level for Platinum, which is very possibly many quarters into the future.
Weekly risk shows double bearish divergence (Gold down versus Platinum) which is the strongest signal at this moment that Platinum should get stronger fairly soon.

Daily AU/PT Ratio 24 Sep

Weekly AU/PT Ratio 24 Sep

Monthly AU/PT Ratio 24 Sep

Qrtly AU/PT Ratio 24 Sep


PLATINUM/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Trend

(Previous update in brackets)

Gold Platinum ratio Monthly Weekly Daily
43.84 (42.09)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
60 (47) 69 (45) 87 (66)
Total PM
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
Pt:40% Ag:30% Au:30%

Platinum/Silver Ratio Charts

Sept 24Platinum vs Silver also ended the week about 4% higher with a more volatile Silver component during the week. Daily risk weight was pushed up to 90% and may show some correction although the longer term time scales still look suffieciently positive for Platinum to maintain our 10% Platinum overweight.

Sept 17 The initial further 3% drop against Gold and silver was followed by a much larger correction in the Silver price going into the weekend. The subsequent correction in favor of Platinum did create a sharp risk weight reversal. The result is likely more search for direction before Platinum resumes its uptrend. We have switched 10% of our physical Silver into physical Platinum last Monday Sept 13 and wait for the market to settle down.
The weely risk weight chart shows very similar bullish divergence for Platinum as for Platinum against Gold. This is a key signal to be patient with the new position. Still looking for equilibrium against Silver well above the 60 level.

Sept 10 Platinum risk weight shows an inverse bullish divergence. Lower risk weight and higher or equal price. Otherwise a similar low risk short term picture to take the opportunity to switch a bit of physical Silver into Platinum.
Weekly also looks to move into a second bullish divergence for Platinum supporting our low risk slight repositioning.
Monthly is down but has yet to properly move into high risk weight territory to see an alarm dropping onto our position.
The Quarterly risk weight chart still favors the bullish divergence established last year and subsequent long term intermediate finish (2022 or 2023).

Daily Platinum/Silver Ratio 24/09

Weekly Platinum/Silver Ratio 24/09

Monthly Platinum/Silver Ratio 24/09

Qrtly PTSilver Ratio 24/09



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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, PLATINUM FORECAST 2021 | EYEFORGOLD.

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