Platinum now holding steady above $1,000 | 5 November

Platinum Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.

PLATINUM FORECAST

(Previous week in brackets)

05 November 2021 close The ridge between $900 and 1040 between mid 2016 and mid 2017 has been a target support and resistance for the past 3 months. We are now at that upper resistance level and a break above it should re-confirm the long term trend. With monthly still down but clearly narrowing a short term push up may turn monthly into an uptrend by December. The is a preferred technical scenario but it may also take longer again as more opportunistic traditional precious metals investors have turned their eyes towards other asset classes, especially Crypto. No Change however to our 14% physical Platinum holding.

31 Oct close / 1 Nov 2021 update The Platinum Quarterly risk chart has quickly dropped into a risk level where it may continue its trend upward. We would historically expect risk weight to come into the 90% red area which in our opinion will trigger a price move equal to Gold. Monthly risk looks ready to turn bullish again whilst weekly has yet to finsh the uptrend that started from bullish divergence in September. On this 1st November, daily risk has turned bullish follwing the quick price rally today. The overall picture remains positive for Platinum. We did re-allocate some towards silver so these two metals represent about 14% each of the total portfolio.

GOLD/PLATINUM Ratio Price Risk Trend

(Previous update in brackets)

Gold/Platinum Ratio Charts

5 Nov 2021 close Risk weight is most likely to drop further in all time frames and which favors Platinum to get stronger versus gold. Our long term prediction of reaching at least the 50 year ratio average of 0.87, a halving from the present 1.75, still holds firmly.

Oct 31 close / 1 Nov update Friday's close was also the close for October which following a week of further weakness made the Daily risk weight of the Gold/Platinum ratio shoot up at the close and subsequently turning into a strong downtrend again this Monday Nov 1. The Ratio lost 4$ today at time of writing, dropping from 1.7550 to 1.6870. A drop and close below 1.67 will be a very bearish chart pattern. Risk weight will also turn bearish and indicate a resumption of the major cycle trend that started in March 2020. We forecast that the Gold/Platinum ratio will return to its 50 years average at around 0.87 represented by the horizontal line on Monthly and Quarterly charts below. We maintain a tiny overweight of Platinum amnd Silver versus Gold in the precious metals portfolio.

Oct 22 The Gold/Platinum ratio paused and corrected again finishing in a Daily risk weight uptrend after short term bullish divergence. This is not being confirmed by the longer term time intervals which then decides that we do not react to just short term corrections. The long term outlook is for Platinum to reach 1:1 against Gold, which is a historically sure bet given time. No Change to maintaing PT overweight in our allocation.

PLATINUM/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Trend

(Previous update in brackets)

Platinum/Silver Ratio Charts

5 November close The Platinum versus Silver ratio still hovers around that historic low range as seen on the quarterly Platinum Silver chart below. With the 50 year average at 73 Platinum should have the benfit of any doubt and this Platinum/Silver ratio confirms that Platinum should be a strong allocation with the physical precious metals portfolio. Yet, Silver may explode and lead the rest at a slowe pace. Either way, the portfolio should benefit from the balanced allocation protection. The technical picture does not look particularly weak for Silver and strong for Platinum either and could turn in either direction short term. Hold.

Oct 31 close / 1 Nov update Platinum versus Silver closed weaker in October at 42.66, but rallied strongly on Monday Nov 1 towards 44.30. We have waited to see how the new month would begin. We have rebalanced our precious metals allocation ever so slightly where Silver is now equal to Platinum. The technical print at Friday's close 29 October was somewhat inconclusive although short term indicators with a low risk trend upturn on Daily are in favor of a Platinum rally versus Silver. This actually happened today Nov 1 with some speed where Platinum rallied 4% without much change in Gold or Silver. As all metals will eventually find the same direction on perceived fundamentals we still forecast for Platinum to show more strength against Silver, eventually reaching that 50 years average of around 73 from current 40's handle with many more ups and downs to come.