In the week Oct 4 Platinum/USD may have started the expected move higher | 08 October

Platinum Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.

PLATINUM FORECAST

(Previous week in brackets)

08 October 2021 close The stronger action in Platinum towards the end of last week suggests someone else has followed our lead making a swap between Gold/Silver in favor of Platinum. Platinum and Palladium both rallied to close over 5% higher where Gold and Silver remained largely unchanged. Leading forecast indicator is medium term weekly which started an uptrend from a bullish divergence confirmation in lower risk quartile with Daily and Monthly and Quarterly risk allowing enough room for appreciation too without showing a visible contrarian to Weekly risk scenario. Hence remain very positive on the Platinum position against all major currencies.

01 October 2021 close Platinum held its own last week whilst Gold and Silver both bottomed and returned to the average weekly price wheras platinum closed slightly lower. Our overweight platinum allocation is the opportunity trade as we still expect Platinum to outperform both Gold and Silver and if it doesn't Platinum will be driven forward on any major rally in Gold and Silver.
Weekly risk weight appears to start an uptrend from a bullish divergence break (higher risk/lower price) whilst Monthly is already lower risk with price well above the 12 year resistance line. The quarterly risk weight chart looks very bullish with this steep drop in risk weight since earlier this year. This is a long term bullish picture and we seek price equilibrium with gold within a few years.

GOLD/PLATINUM Ratio Price Risk Trend

(Previous update in brackets)

Gold/Platinum Ratio Charts

Oct 08 Platinum versus Gold gained 5.4% for the week at Friday's close with all time intervals now trending down again. Eespecially the medium and longer term time scales have enough potential to push the ratio down further. The Monthly and Quarterly charts below show a black horizontal line that represents the average closing price of the Gold/Platinum ration since 1968 which in all time intervals sits in the 0.86 handle. We expect this level to be crossed at some point in the not too distant future or within 4 to 5 years. From the current level of 1.71 to 0.86 would be excactly 100% appreciation of the investment. No change to our slight overweight Platinum position vs Gold.

Oct 01 Gold versus Platinum looks weak in terms of risk weight pushing Gold lower versus Platinum in all time scales from Daily to Quarterly. This must become apparent in weeks to come but as always may take time, hence comfortable with the slight overweight Platinum opportunistic allocation. No Change.

PLATINUM/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Trend

(Previous update in brackets)

Platinum/Silver Ratio Charts

Oct 08 Platinum gained over 4% again versus silver with the latter looking to get overbought in Daily and Weekly time intervals. The trend however is clearly up and with our Platinum/Silver ratio equlibrium since 1968 at the 73 (!) handle level, as shown by the black horizontal line on the medium and long term time scale charts, we stay with the slight overweight physical Platinum position until we get a clear medium or longer term signal that this trend is to make a serious intermdiate peak.
Note: The Monthly and Quarterly chart risk weight chart looks a little different due to an data error in May 2020. This has now been corrected and actually indicates a stronger Platinum still, although the feeling is that Silver in its own right should perform better in current economic conditions. History learns that Platinum often takes a lead on price development in the precious metals space. No Change.

Oct 01 Except for Daily Platinum which looks weaker versus silver at the close on Friday with risk weight turning down from a higher risk level, the other times scales very much confirm the same outlook as Platinum versus gold. The longer term picture therefore takes priority over short term and should support the price of Platinum against both Gold and Silver during Q4. If the overweight Platinum allocation within the portfolio proves uncertain we will await a general metals rally to possibly make a switch back from profit to equal or overweight gold or silver as dictated by market performance. No Change for now.