Platinum investors still in doubt | 16 July
Platinum Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous week in brackets)
|PT Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|PT % Risk
|67 (68)||30 (33)||79 (80)|
Total allocation 50% (35%)
16 July 2021 Platinum USD again wants to challenge the long term trend. Quarterly still points down following a sharp risk weight correction compared with a relatively minor price correction. Risk weight is expected to run up closer to 90-100% before reaching a first top. We cannot exclude another run down, although less likely, and if it does the technical picture is still bullish for medium term weekly and softer for Daily which can delay the main trend continuation into the 2k area. Still Hold.
14 July 2021 It seems that whilst we've been bullish on Pt, the market largely ignores this equally most precious of all metals. Looking at price development the past 18 months we would rather redefine our next target to get closer to $1900. It simply has a long way to go in the current phase of recovery towards equilibrium vis a vis Gold and Silver. This must also mean a much higher price against the US Dollar even if Gold and Silver were to stall at current levels, which seems rather unlikely. No Change.
GOLD/PLATINUM Ratio Price Risk Charts & Analysis
(Previous update in brackets)
|Gold Platinum ratio||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↓)||↓ (↓)|
|30 (30)||72 (68)||52 (35)|
Total allocation 50% (35%)
Gold/Platinum Ratio Charts
Friday's move was unexpectedly large and sudden following a stronger dollar across the board. Platinum lost 3% more than gold which felt like a disappointment, but doesn't move our longer term targets. We may need more patience during this longer correction. Risk weight is expected to follow its typical correction trend towards the 10-15% level.
The visible Monthly v-shaped risk weight bottom is less likely to be finished on the downside like it was in 2010. The logic in 95% of primary trend direction cases is that monthly develops bullish divergence at least once and possibly more often. Following this principle removes the risk of bottom picking at a too early stage. We look to let this market run its technical course, besides the fundamental reason to use the now much cheaper platinum to clean combustion engines. Platinum is traditionally the richest and physically the heaviest of precious metals.
The Platinum recovery stalled last week but found some fresh impuls on Thursday Friday. On the Daily chart we need yet to see a signal of an more serious intermediate Gold/Platinum ratio bottom. Based on this daily chart formation we are still in a correction of the larger move and that low has yet to materialize.
Monthly risk weight needs to make a real bottom either in deep low risk territory like, < 5% or bullish divergence associated with a lower Gold/Platinum ratio. This has yet to materialize and supports our overall position.
Quarterly risk weight is down into the new quarter and picking up the existing long term trend. That trend may take a few years to transpire, like the 1973-1979 move which resulted in a 50% drop of the Gold/PT ratio. A similar drop, probably on shorter time scale would trigger our long term equilibrium objective. As that happens Equilibrium or the multi decade average is then likely to be broken in the process before turning back up again. Physical Platinum therefor is likely to remain a strong hold in our long term portfolio.