Platinum investors still in doubt | 16 July
Platinum Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous week in brackets)
|PT Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↑)||↑ (↓)|
|PT % Risk
|65 (67)||25 (30)||17 (79)|
Total allocation 50% (35%)
30 July 2021 Platinum performancd has of course been a little disappointing against our forecast but hasn't yet failed. It is still well up from from the mid 2020 investment level and still has a mixed short term outlook. Our objectives to reach long equilibrium against gold and then pass through it are still very much risk on and we confidently stick with our long term physical Pt position.
16 July 2021 Platinum USD again wants to challenge the long term trend. Quarterly still points down following a sharp risk weight correction compared with a relatively minor price correction. Risk weight is expected to run up closer to 90-100% before reaching a first top. We cannot exclude another run down, although less likely, and if it does the technical picture is still bullish for medium term weekly and softer for Daily which can delay the main trend continuation into the 2k area. Still Hold.
GOLD/PLATINUM Ratio Price Risk Charts & Analysis
(Previous update in brackets)
|Gold Platinum ratio||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)|
|36 (30)||90 (72)||96 (52)|
Total allocation 50% (35%)
Gold/Platinum Ratio Charts
The current cross rate is delivering a fairly overbought situation. This could last a bit longer but a return to a weaker Gold/Platinum ratio is very much on the cards.
Monthly is clearly not confirming the stronger shorter term chart reading making monthly a non leading indicator.I.e it could easily turn back down again as a more likely short term and medium term top is confirmed during August.
Friday's move was unexpectedly large and sudden following a stronger dollar across the board. Platinum lost 3% more than gold which felt like a disappointment, but doesn't move our longer term targets. We may need more patience during this longer correction. Risk weight is expected to follow its typical correction trend towards the 10-15% level.
The visible Monthly v-shaped risk weight bottom is less likely to be finished on the downside like it was in 2010. The logic in 95% of primary trend direction cases is that monthly develops bullish divergence at least once and possibly more often. Following this principle removes the risk of bottom picking at a too early stage. We look to let this market run its technical course, besides the fundamental reason to use the now much cheaper platinum to clean combustion engines. Platinum is traditionally the richest and physically the heaviest of precious metals.