PT: Gold Platinum Ratio solid downtrend | 22 Jan 2020

Platinum weekly and monthly risk weight still looking firm | 22 Jan 2021


Platinum Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.

PLATINUM FORECAST

(Previous week in brackets)

Platinum USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
1101 (1068)
PT Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓)
Pt % Risk
Weight
86 (85) 81 (80) 70 (65)
PM Distribution
Total allocation 55% (50%)
Pt:30% Ag:40% Au:30%

Platinum / USD live price



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Platinum comment

22 January 2021 close:  Early exit from markets that appear to indicate high/higher risk weight is not uncommon. Our experience learns that more often than not one can easily miss 50% of the move. For trading it could validate an earlier 25% exit. For investment and in this case it is better to  stay put. We are in a primary uptrend where we should await bearish divergence ,Risk weight to Price, in the longer term time scales. That hasn't happened yet, so we wait. Daily risk is pointing down but Hourly risk weight is still pushing upward across our tools. No Change.
15 January 2021 close: The Gold/Platinum ratio analysis below is critical for comfort with our long Platinum position. Since we initiated our position at just under $900 after 13 years of correction with the Gold to Platinum ratio around 2.15, Platinum every time recovered earlier and stronger during any of the recent precious metals retracement periods. In order to protect our long term physical precious metals holding we may well increase our Platinum allocation as the ratio closes in on its long term equilibrium with gold at just under 1:1. No Change.

GOLD/PLATINUM Ratio Price Risk Charts & Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Gold Platinum ratio LT-M MT-W ST-D
168 (171)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
22 (24) 6 (10) 22 (23)
PM Distribution
Total allocation 55% (50%)
Pt:30% Ag:40% Au:30%

Gold/Platinum Ratio Charts

Daily Ratio 22 Jan

The possible corrective reaction we expected last week did not materialize with the Gold Platinum ratio consolidating in the 1.65-170 range. The short term picture still favors further upward correction and this could even last a bit longer as weekly is also pushing up. We prefer to see a deeper risk weight dive in the Monthly and Quarterly time scales before considering a short term exit.

Weekly Ratio 22 Jan

Last week's observation for the Gold Platinum ratio to consolidate in a higher price range (170+) still applies. As we are in a primary AU/PT downtrend we can expect bullish divergence to develop with a wider calendar spread of 6 to 9 months. Price objectives are 1.60, 1.20 and 1.00. Our allocation spread therefore allows for some Platinum weakness, which can lead to a larger allocation to Platinum if strong bearish divergence between short and medium term timescales is building.

Monthly Ratio 22 Jan

Interim Monthly risk weight fell just 2 points to 22 this week and is expected to reach a deeper sub 10 level as price reaches our expected targets. This could take many months with some correction along the way.

Qrtly Ratio 22 Jan

Quarterly risk weight declined just 1.5 risk points to 41 and is also expected to at reach a sub 15 level at a quarter end print and sub 10 as an interim print. We should normally be able to act on strong shorter term oversold signals to maximise the result from the present Platinum allocation.


Daily Ratio 15 Jan 2021

A healthy reaction to the steady downtrend in force since early November. A few days of upward correction in the Gold/Platinum ratio can quickly develop bearish divergence between short en long term timescales. With Monthly and Quarterly in strong downtrends we stay with our slightly favoured Platinum allocation with a view to see this through towards Gold/Platinum 1:1 equilibrium.

Weekly Ratio 15 Jan 2021

Weekly Gold Platinum ratio risk weight indicator shows potential bullish divergence. That may materialize if the ratio moves even a little bit north again and could last perhaps up to 4 to 6 weeks.

Monthly Ratio 15 Jan 2021

Monthly risk weight is half way the period has dropped to 24 and is likely to reach a sub 10 level aty the time of an interim price bottom. This is one indicator to watch closely unless we see bearish divergence developing in the meantime between short term and long term risk weight.

Qrtly Ratio 15 Jan 2021

Quarterly risk weight at 1/6 of the period declined a further 4 points to 42. This downtrend is in full force and likely to drop into a sub 15 low risk range before we see a significant bottom.



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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, PLATINUM FORECAST 2021 | EYEFORGOLD.

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