Bitcoin Corrective move to <10,000 very possible | 26 June
BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↓ (↓ )||↓ (↑)||↓ (↓)|
|68 (70)||18 (19)||34 (50)|
|Allocation Limit(0%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
26 June close: In any highly speculative financial asset class there will be a day of reckoning. And Anything that can go wrong will go wrong... 'for certain investors'. It doesn't mean they can't be right, but timing and market respect mean everything when managing risk. Last week Bitcoin reached a fresh low in the current downtrend which just confirms that the risk of a medium bottom already in place (28,800) is near zero. Monthy risk weight trend is strongly down with relatively little history in the pocket. Weekly, historically, is in an unfinished downtrend and we haven't seen a short term chart pattern with an outspoken bottom.
Since December 2020, 7 months of bottom to top and vice versa price ranges between $12,000 and $29,500, 4 months up and now 3 months down where an upmonths is a higher close than opening and vice versa. We may have already witnessed what can be described as a blow off top. We would argue that the risk is that this current correction may last much longer than desired by most investors. 10 years of very precise daily data looks more like we have completed a first primary 5 wave (Elliott) in this modern day asset, which may even be the 'only' massive range of an asset class the current generation of investors will see. This applies to lesser extend to many of the peer tokens. If this 5th major correction of BTC over the past 11 years is indeed of a primary nature the chances are that the next drop will even be sub $10,000 simply because the Dec 2017 peak isn't real support. Then a rally back to 'whereever' (say $35k) followed by another major new bottom possibly into the 1,000 to 3,000 range. This is a real risk scenario today and basically means exit.
We also notice that Gold vs Bitcoin Ratio (already recovered to 0.054) has weekend (Saturday/Sunday) gaps going up to 0,10 and even 0,20. This means a Bitcoin price level of 1/2 ($16,000) resp. 1/4 ($8,000) of the current price with the same gold price. We stay out of this BTC market and would be looking for individual native startup tokens with serious long term potential. Fortunately there are plenty of those, even though the initial reactions are that all tokens will follow the leader as we are witnessing today.
We have added a linear quarterly chart to the inflation proof log scale charts below to visualise that five wave primary trend with wave I finishing in 2014, wave III in 2017 and wave V 3 months ago. This doesn't mean that we can't be wrong, but the risk level is still plenty high. No Change.
19 June close: BTC still high risk with Monthly trend down from a bearish divergence risk to price reading, Weekly not having completed a full down cycle and Daily in no man's land neutral first trending up last weekend then down again. We stay with last week's strategy where the more likely scenario is a much larger correction before this is finished. Market action remains highly speculative. No Change.
Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Bitpanda - BEST/EUR||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)|
|58 (60)||16 (21)||28 (57)|
|Allocation Limit(variable)||Invested||100% (100%)|
BEST token live price
Bitpanda BEST analysis
26 June 2021: BEST market risk position is no different than for Bitcoin or most other peer tokens. If the token drops further, which we expect right now with an objective closer to 0.60 or even lower), we will continue to exchange the monthly rewards for cash at whatever bid prevails and reserve the cushion for a fresh allocation into a variety of high potential development tokens from our watchlist if good opportunities arise based on clear bottoming risk patterns. No Change.
19 June 2021: Our strategy can remain unchanged due to a minimum rewards benefit even though the technical picture is equally unfavourable, like Bitcoin and most other tokens. Bitpanda however is showing strong results making the BEST token a more desired hold in the crypto space. Our market risk with BEST is sub zero, having released in excess of the original investment. We sense that across the entire crypto space more weak hands will be shaken out over the coming months. No change with a view to re-invest some cash into a range of medium to larger crypto tokens as prices drop substantially. Typically tokens from our watchlist.
S&P, Stock Indices, Equities, High Risk, No Limits
S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
|Standard & Poor 500||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↑ (↓)||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)|
|98 (97)||92 (86)||90 (34)|
|Max Allocation 20% (20%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
25 June 2021 close: The bullish short term divergence (Daily vs Weekly) last week pushed the market back up as it has done for the past 2 years. We are back in high risk mode for all timescales at this week's close. Interim Monthly risk weight trend did turn back up with 4 days to go till end of June. Next week's update will show a fresh monthly direction. No Change and staying away from this equity index.
18 June 2021 close: A 2% correction was tge result of a very high risk reading across time scales the previous week. Revent history makes it almost irrelevant to attempt a forecast for the next few weeks. The chart picture just looks extremely high risk as it has done for so long. If we look at the economic fundamentals only the fact of USdollar being the world's reserve currency may delay the type of demise that is now being looked at by so many equity market investors. For sure, something big is in the making and we can't say when or where. A major event in any one of the favoured asset classes could have a huge ripple effect across all markets in all continents. We stay well away from equity investments to protect our portfolio from undesired fluctuations in this inflationary environment.