Silver, Gold/Silver prediction Month October – Q4 2021
Silver Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.
SILVER FORECAST(Previous update in brackets)
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)|
|% Risk Weight||38 (50)||14 (19)||23 (18)|
|Total PM Portfolio allocation 40% (40%) breakdown:||Pt:16%||Ag:12%||Au:12%|
01 October 2021 close: The midweek fast Silver drop below $21,00 recovered on Thursday ending with a more bullish divergence print on short term indicators. Weekly risk weight also looks to produce a bulllish divergence print which makes the metals look less vulnerable than the market seems to want to indicate. This is positive for October price development whilst the Quarterly chart hasn't begun to make a major top anytime soon. No Change to our allocation.
24 September 2021 close: Silver is currently resting on a support line at 22.40. So far the bottom of the corrective range since August 2020. Market behavior does not suggest that any further weakness would be anything but speculative fear. Even though we've prferred a little Platinum overweight, Silver doesn't look as vulnerable at this level as it did at $24.00 2 weeks ago. The quarterly risk chart below is pointing down, but hasn't reached a more reasonable expected highher high during the next several quarters. Silver is a very patient hold. No Change.
GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous update in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↑ (↓)|
|50 (36)||85 (82)||73 (72)|
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
Gold Silver ratio analysis
01 October 2021 close: For the first time since Gold/Silver bottomed back in february 2021 we see a technical picture that hints at or is close to a correctio top building a possible bearish divergence in both daily and weekly time scales. The new month at this level is pushed up hard to 50% risk without have made a proper bottom yet. No confirmation yet but this market looks more ready to resume the downtrend that started in Q1 2020. This could become a tradeable opportunity to build some overweight on Silver although we will not yet make a re-allocation at this moment, partly because quarterly risk still is undecided and could turn up again or down under the influence of more significant shorter term price pressure. The total metals portfolio is 40% of total with Gold and Silver equally divided at 24% and Platinum at 40%. The latter being the opportunity trade after 10 years of severe weakness.
24 September 2021 close: The pressure on Silver seems to be slowing down evidenced by possible Gold/Silver ratio bearish divergence confirmed in the daily time frame and a possible yet unconfirmed bearish divergence on weekly risk weight. It means that the correction of the Gold/Silver ratio that started at 62.00 in February 2021 may be ending fairly soon. With quarterly risk still pointing positive for Gold there is no reason to go overweight silver versus gold. Just a patient hold on both metals.