Silver, Gold/Silver prediction Month October – Q4 2021
Silver Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.
SILVER FORECAST(Previous update in brackets)
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)||↑ (↑)|
|% Risk Weight||36 (38)||14 (14)||64 (23)|
|Total PM Portfolio allocation 40% (40%) breakdown:||Pt:16%||Ag:12%||Au:12%|
08 October 2021 close: Silver has a lackluster week, but also rallied fairly strongly on Friday by 3% and losing it all again in a matter of 6 hours. Weekly risk weight trend turned up at the same 14% risk level it reached on 1 October. No change to our 40% allocation stock position of which 30% (12% of total) is physical silver, 30% (12% of total) is physical gold and 40% (16% of total) is physical Platinum.
01 October 2021 close: The midweek fast Silver drop below $21,00 recovered on Thursday ending with a more bullish divergence print on short term indicators. Weekly risk weight also looks to produce a bulllish divergence print which makes the metals look less vulnerable than the market seems to want to indicate. This is positive for October price development whilst the Quarterly chart hasn't begun to make a major top anytime soon. No Change to our allocation.
GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous update in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|50 (50)||82 (85)||31 (73)|
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
Gold Silver ratio analysis
08 October 2021 close: The most critical technical reading for the Gold/Silver ratio is weekly risk weight which turned from up to down at 82% with a minor bearish divergence setup. Daily already reach a bearish divergence a week ago and this lifts the chances for silver to start coming back towards the 50 years average quarterly close. The horizontal black line of the quarterly Gold/Silver chart below is that average calculated from Q1 1968. We expect the average to be broken within the next few years although that moment could be any length of period between now and then. No Change to our stock position.
01 October 2021 close: For the first time since Gold/Silver bottomed back in february 2021 we see a technical picture that hints at or is close to a correctio top building a possible bearish divergence in both daily and weekly time scales. The new month at this level is pushed up hard to 50% risk without have made a proper bottom yet. No confirmation yet but this market looks more ready to resume the downtrend that started in Q1 2020. This could become a tradeable opportunity to build some overweight on Silver although we will not yet make a re-allocation at this moment, partly because quarterly risk still is undecided and could turn up again or down under the influence of more significant shorter term price pressure. The total metals portfolio is 40% of total with Gold and Silver equally divided at 24% and Platinum at 40%. The latter being the opportunity trade after 10 years of severe weakness.