Silver, Gold/Silver prediction Month October – Q4 2021


Silver Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.

SILVER FORECAST

(Previous update in brackets)
Silver/USD Monthly Weekly Daily
23.26 (22.62)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk Weight 36 (36) 22 (14) 82 (64)
Total PM Portfolio allocation 40% (40%) breakdown: Pt:16% Ag:12% Au:12%

Silver/USD live price


Silver comment

15 October 2021 close: Silver improved nearly 3% for the week and did about 2.5% better than gold. The technical risk weight picture is not conclusive although medium term risk weight is making a bullish divergence formation with strong support at the $21 handle. we patiently hold on to our 12% of total portfolio allocation with physical silver.

08 October 2021 close: Silver has a lackluster week, but also rallied fairly strongly on Friday by 3% and losing it all again in a matter of 6 hours. Weekly risk weight trend turned up at the same 14% risk level it reached on 1 October. No change to our 40% allocation stock position of which 30% (12% of total) is physical silver, 30% (12% of total) is physical gold and 40% (16% of total) is physical Platinum.

01 October 2021 close: The midweek fast Silver drop below $21,00 recovered on Thursday ending with a more bullish divergence print on short term indicators. Weekly risk weight also looks to produce a bulllish divergence print which makes the metals look less vulnerable than the market seems to want to indicate. This is positive for October price development whilst the Quarterly chart hasn't begun to make a major top anytime soon. No Change to our allocation.

Quarterly Silver/USD 50 year chart


GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis

(Previous update in brackets)

GOLD/SILVER Ratio Monthly Weekly Daily
75.60 (77.29)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
48 (50) 74 (82) 15 (31)
Total PM
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
breakdown:
Pt:16% Ag:12% Au:12%

Gold/Silver Ratio live price


Gold Silver ratio analysis

15 October 2021 close: The Gold/Silver ratio is starting to show a stronger silver side developing. Silver has gained 6% from the recent ratio high at 80.63 and looks it may continue this trend. As the down trend that started in March 2020 is of primary nature we would historically expect at least one bullish divergence to develop in the monthly time interval. This is yet to happen. Once the Precious metals space finds a new lease of life all metals will benefit and for now we are happy to maintain the present allocation distribution. We will update if some special market event triggers a fresh comment.

08 October 2021 close: The most critical technical reading for the Gold/Silver ratio is weekly risk weight which turned from up to down at 82% with a minor bearish divergence setup. Daily already reach a bearish divergence a week ago and this lifts the chances for silver to start coming back towards the 50 years average quarterly close. The horizontal black line of the quarterly Gold/Silver chart below is that average calculated from Q1 1968. We expect the average to be broken within the next few years although that moment could be any length of period between now and then. No Change to our stock position.

Quarterly Gold/Silver ratio chart since 1971




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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, SILVER FORECAST 2021 | EYEFORGOLD.

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