Silver, Gold/Silver prediction 2022
Silver Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.
SILVER FORECAST(Previous update in brackets)
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)|
|% Risk Weight||36 (37)||45 (33)||68 (86)|
|Total PM Portfolio allocation 40% (40%) breakdown:||Pt:14%||Ag:14%||Au:12%|
31 October 2021 close: The Metals including silver do not provide a solid technical picture, but the chart tells us we are still, and nearer the bottom, of a larger correction with Monthly risk having dropped from 80 to 25 and medium weekly in an uptrend. Silver is just one critically important element in the total financial insurance package, besides its increasing industrial use. The crypto industry is creating and realising the massive potential for decentralized and centralized blockchain technology development in Finance. This rapidly growing market, now 2,500,000,000,000 (2.5 Trillion) dollars worth, attracts millions of new retail investors every quarter. The pump and hold and pump and dump schemes as seen with many tokens are the kind of casino that can, and probably will, create extraordinary spending power for many people. This initially will lead to hyperinflation followed by stagflation due to an ever growing wealth gap between the top 30% and bottom 70%. As Central Banks and Governments must react, there is little choice but to allow a massive devaluation of fiat currency versus Gold, Silver and Platinum. No Change except we have made a small adjustment to the allocation to bring Silver back in line with Platinum.
22 October 2021 close: Silver technical position, following another week of positive price action (+4%), looks more favourable and thus gives an emotional signal to increase the position relative to Gold and Platinum. The length of the consolidation that started at the peak in August 2020 however is still hard to predict although Silver volatility typically send this very precious metal much higher and much faster and take quarterly risk in the 90+% risk range. Holding physical Silver is the most important aspect right now and whilst it also looks stronger vis a vis Platinum and Gold in the short term we prefer to stick with the balanced allocation between Gold and Silver joinly accounting for 60% of our total precious metals portfolio. Long term Hold, No Change
15 October 2021 close: Silver improved nearly 3% for the week and did about 2.5% better than gold. The technical risk weight picture is not conclusive although medium term risk weight is making a bullish divergence formation with strong support at the $21 handle. we patiently hold on to our 12% of total portfolio allocation with physical silver.
GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous update in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)|
|58 (47)||42 (62)||30 (10)|
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
Gold Silver ratio analysis
31 October 2021 close: Daily risk weight reversed the corrective trend 3 weeks ago with a 10% move in favor of silver. The current retracement very appears to be a correction of this larger move down which is confirmed by the firm downtrend of the Medium term weekly time interval and a Monthly picture that could return to a downtrend very soon. Monthly is now showing a stronger risk increase on the first day of November which at the 74 ratio level is a mildly bearish signal. The quarterly risk chart is mildly down and we seek for that 50 years average level of 57 to be reached before the end of next year. Hence holding a balanced and manageable risk with the Silver allocation. No Change.
22 October 2021 close: Gold/Silver ration dropped nearly 3% as Silver bounced more than Gold, Whilst Platinum remained flat to slightly down. We maintain our long term outlook for the Gold/Silver ratio to reach its 50 year average on a closing basis which for all time intervals (Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly) lies around a Gold to Silver ratio of 57. And if it goes there it typically will follow through with some momentum. This means a minimum drop of 22.5% from Friday's close at 73.55.