Silver, Gold/Silver prediction 2022
Silver Price Forecast relative to Long Term Quarterly, Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) risk weight data.
SILVER FORECAST(Previous update in brackets)
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↑ (↓)|
|% Risk Weight||30 (36)||50 (45)||45 (68)|
|Total PM Portfolio allocation 40% (40%) breakdown:||Pt:14%||Ag:14%||Au:12%|
05 November 2021 close: The midweek slump towards the 23 flat handle found support well above the long term support line of 22.10. The subsequent reversal up looks fairly solid. All precious metals benefit from increased industrial use demand.
Silver/USD Risk weight looks in a solid uptrend as well with no time frame at a high percentage risk level. Monthly risk is still down but the new month has pushed it toward the 30% risk level which in recent history is rather similar to the risk weight behavior back in 2008 with Silver around $10.00 and before the 3 year rally towards $50. Silver is a strong hold at 14% of total portfolio.
31 October 2021 close: The Metals including silver do not provide a solid technical picture, but the chart tells us we are still, and nearer the bottom, of a larger correction with Monthly risk having dropped from 80 to 25 and medium weekly in an uptrend. Silver is just one critically important element in the total financial insurance package, besides its increasing industrial use. The crypto industry is creating and realising the massive potential for decentralized and centralized blockchain technology development in Finance. This rapidly growing market, now 2,500,000,000,000 (2.5 Trillion) dollars worth, attracts millions of new retail investors every quarter. The pump and hold and pump and dump schemes as seen with many tokens are the kind of casino that can, and probably will, create extraordinary spending power for many people. This initially will lead to hyperinflation followed by stagflation due to an ever growing wealth gap between the top 30% and bottom 70%. As Central Banks and Governments must react, there is little choice but to allow a massive devaluation of fiat currency versus Gold, Silver and Platinum. No Change except we have made a small adjustment to the allocation to bring Silver back in line with Platinum.
GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous update in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)|
|58 (58)||42 (42)||54 (30)|
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
Gold Silver ratio analysis
05 November 2021 close: Closely following the Gold/Silver ratio value is of particular interest to determine a level of overweight for either metal in the portfolio. We stick to our forecast that we will reach that 50 year average of Gold being 57 X Silver and whih typically will (temporarily) go through that level.
Risk weight analysis across time intervals is not showing any spectecular strong high or low indication, hence looking to develop a traditional technical analysis pattern where we should first see bullish divergence in longer term monthly and even quarterly time frames before calling a potential trend bottom. That has yet to materialize. Silver thus has at least a 20% better potential over gold which could take some time to realize. No Change.
31 October 2021 close: Daily risk weight reversed the corrective trend 3 weeks ago with a 10% move in favor of silver. The current retracement very appears to be a correction of this larger move down which is confirmed by the firm downtrend of the Medium term weekly time interval and a Monthly picture that could return to a downtrend very soon. Monthly is now showing a stronger risk increase on the first day of November which at the 74 ratio level is a mildly bearish signal. The quarterly risk chart is mildly down and we seek for that 50 years average level of 57 to be reached before the end of next year. Hence holding a balanced and manageable risk with the Silver allocation. No Change.