A fresh monthly Silver high risk weight level will be a very bullish technical scenario | 04 June 2021
Silver Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.
SILVER FORECAST(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)|
|% Risk Weight||81 (77)||78 (73)||48 (55)|
|PM Distribution Total allocation 50% (35%)||Pt:35%||Ag:30%||Au:35%|
04 June 2021 close: The Monthly Silver/USD chart has a distinct flavor of Elliott intermediate Wave 4 or an unusual complex wave 2 ready to break out towards a first Intermediate wave 1 or wave 3 top in the current cycle. It is always hard to count waves before they end but Monthly risk would normally create a bearish divergence top at the end of a major trend. This means the wave count is probably correct enough in staying with the trend. Risk weight certainly supports our outlook, so no change.
28 May 2021 close: Technical outlook remains very much positive for silver/us dollar. The long term hold of physical silver may require further patience but the overall picture is still strong and lacks typical long term topping action that could be many months of years away still with a potential 'mark-up' surprise along the way. No Change.
No Platinum/Silver ratio update this week as no change in technical status and our balanced metals portfolio distribution either.
Silver Q risk analysis
04 June 2021: The Quaterly 50 year Silver/USD risk chart below visibly supports the strong major uptrend underway. A closing rally above 31 this Q2, 2021 would however mean a very high weight risk (>90%) situation developing. If Q2 ends slightly weaker than today a simulation shows more room for a much higher price level ( $37.00) without an extreme high risk weight condition.
28 May 2021: No change to a strong supercycle uptrend developing.
GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|10 (9)||58 (55)||73 (82)|
Total allocation 50% (35%)
Gold Silver ratio analysis
04 June 2021 close: We call this Gold/Silver market to continue the corrective sideways pattern since the summer of 2020 in the absence of any clear movement. The broader technical picture suggests that the next bigger move may still be down in spite of a low risk Monthly and Quarterly risk weight print. The Daily chart is producing a nice 15 degree upward angle with resistance at around 74.00. This may still be the intermediate objective before silver turns more bullish again versus gold. There is no reason to take a punt in silver at this moment.
28 May 2021 close: The Gold/Silver ratio still doesn't signal a clear corrective direction or trend continuation towards long term equilibrium. Whilst weekly is slowly building higher risk versus monthly and daily reaching more top risk levels we could see a bit more volatility towards a lower gold/silver ratio. Monthly risk at the same time is low and trending up but has not set a real technical bottom with bullish divergence. This would be the expected pattern at the end of a longer term price cycle. Hence no change to our balanced metals distribution
04 June 2021 Daily risk weight is on the verge of confirming bullish divergence a second time within 4 weeks. If that happens, likely the next few days already, we could see a nice rally. Even though some gold bugs say that Platinum is not money like gold and silver, it is the heaviest metal and traditionally most valuable precious metal. Platinum has made its mark in history as a worthy gold replacement, so we happily stay with the position.
21 May 2021 Daily risk has come crashing down in this correction. Platinum will soon pick up the cycle uptrend that started in March 2020.
04 June 2021 This is an oversold condition and calls for a Platinum/Silver correction up, at least a few weeks towards the end of the June.
21 May 2021 An equally sharp correction in weekly risk weight doesn't make a switch to silver very appealing. We just hold Platinum unchanged through this current correction which seems natural.
04 June 2021 Monthly is likely to resume its uptrend as daily, and weekly, turns up from the recent downward correction.
21 May 2021 No change from last week. Correction developing, waiting for continuation into much higher risk weight levels.
04 June 2021 The Very Long term quarterly Platinum/Silver ratio correction cannot be called a long term turn of trend at this risk level of 60%. Bullish divergence between shorter time scale (daily/weekly) risk weight trends versus quarterly risk needs to be assessed as the market develops further in coming weeks.
14 and 21 May 2021 The current interim quarterly blip is very early in the current cycle an could even last a few months. The Quarterly chart however still needs to finsh to the upside which may involve a spectecular move in favor of Platinum well into 2022.