Silver: a solid 'hold' for 2022
21 January 2022 close: Silver has rallied some 4% in 2022. We have brought our Silver Platinum ratio allocation back to 50/50 which is just a minor adjustment in favor of Silver. For a long time, we have been figuring the Silver/USD floor being around $21 within the wider price consolidation that started in Q2 2020. If the price holds, which we believe is now a strong possiblity because Long term Monthly risk weight (22%) has turned positive from being trend down at year end 2021, the initial price target is still between $35 and $40. Silver needs to break $25.70 for 2 or 3 consecutive daily closings to start that next move, in our opinion. With daily risk weight being in overbought risk territory and mildly flat or even turning down we could see some consolidation before the longer term rally continues. Otherwise no change to long 'hold'
31 December 2021 close: We have released a little bit of Silver in favor of Platinum and in favor of Palladium as both white metals in this Platinum group have very strong and exponentially increasing industrial value in years to come. Recent weakness again offers this opportunity, which may become a longer but worthwhile wait. Silver however remains a key allocation and our position hasn't really gone anywhere since we accumulated, althoug some benefit arose from the deep discount that was created immediately after the March 2020 shakeout against Gold. Silver has ticked up on the quarterly chart which appears to get support from the shorter time intervals. Monthly in particular is still down but at a higher level which often indicates a turn of trend in the making. We believe that the break out from the consolidation between $21 and $30 since June 2020 will be towards the upside. Our further risk weight updates in this blog will be less frequent and only if we see a major need to removing this critically important wealth preservation hedge.
Silver/USD Risk Weight Position relative to Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly and Daily risk weight data(Previous update in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|% Risk Weight||22 (22)||40 (32)||88 (80)|
|Total PM Portfolio allocation 50% (40%) breakdown:||Au:12%||Ag:14%||Pt:14%|