Silver Chart tells us something | 23 April 2021
Silver Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|76 (77)||26 (23)||78 (85)|
Total allocation 30% (35%)
23 April 2021 close: Even though Daily and Monthly risk weight are in mild down trends in lower top quartile risk weight zone, the medium term has made a lower bottom based on higher price. That's an inverse bullish indication and almost always proves right. It makes sense if numbers that turn down sharper than price ought to develop a stronger price pattern.
Silver remains a near one third of the portfolio. Price may range trade a bit longer still against Gold but Silver is a solid 'hold'.
16 April 2021 close: Silver USD was weak on Monday, recovered sharply on Tuesday and kept gaining strongly on strong buying to close at 25.92 after a 26.30 high on Friday. Weekly risk barely turned up but hourly risk is in strong bullish divergence mode versus Daily risk which makes the Silver picture very positive. Hourly is never a leading timescale, so we not be out of the woods yet with silver and for the metal to take a lead we would need to break 30 again. Monthly risk is down at 77% but Weekly is in bullish divergence mode. Our medium term forecast of 37.00 stands as it is a top overhead resistance level from 2012. Otherwise this level also looks to be an arbitrary chart level as even the 2011 49.78 peak should no longer be seen as a major resistance level. If we get there next time, and for a second time in history, that 50 handle level is likely to be blown away very quickly. No change to our 30% Silver allocation within our precious metals portfolio.
Silver risk analysis
23 April 2021: Little price change and no visible change on the Quarterly Silver risk chart. Trend still strongly up so no change to our longer term objectives of 37.00 initially and beyond.
16 April 2021: This Q2 is only a few weeks young, so the picture wouldn't generally change much. It remains quite bullish Long term. Within the PM space Silver simply plays an important role besides its fundamentally strong function as commodity with increasing industrial demand increasing at a rate of near 10% annually into 2021.
GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)||↓ (↓)|
|7 (7)||49 (50)||26 (15)|
Total allocation 30% (35%)
Gold Silver ratio analysis
23 April 2021 close: The Gold/Silver ratio is likely to see a bit of pressure but the entire space does breath more MOnthly risk consolidation before silver really takes off again. This week saw a sharp advance of Silver which was short lived and just knocking 10 cents of the ratio at this week's close. We'd like to see that consilidation before risking a possibly slightly higher exposure to silver. The present mix of Gold/Silver/Platinum feels pretty low risk.
The quarterly risk chart below is hardly changed from last week and follows the general pattern of not being finished yet long term but a further pause within a 15% price range.
16 April 2021 close: Some reservation in the Gold/Silver cross. After a strong 12 month long reversal the low risk levels shown in Daily and Monthly risk could mean a longer search for fresh direction between the 2 precious metals. We need to give Silver a few more weeks to give fresh direction. A big rally in metals should be fairly even given this picture although Silver will always be more volatile initially. We still analyse Platinum to remain the stronger metal of the three longer term although it is pausing this month. The Quarterly Gold/Silver chart below show is now right on a 35 year price average based on quarterly close. Risk is already deep at 12% which could mean a further pause this quarter around the current ratio level with a range between the recent 62 low and 72 overhead.
23 April 2021 Platinum looks short bullish versus Silver, again.
16 April 2021 The stronger decline of Daily risk weight vs Weekly is likely to create bullish divergence confirming last weeks potential of rejoining the primary trend up (for Pt) again this month.
23 April Medium term Platinum/Silver truned back up but not decisive. Expect a platinum rally from short term risk to confirm the medium term trend as not finished. The higher risk risk percentage could mean Platinum follows silver but we should expect much pressure like we saw 2 weeks ago into last week.
16 April Not much change in Weekly risk weight with mild downward pressure. This could easily turn back up and if it does Platinum could see a very independent and 2nd phase strong advanced within the metals space. Risk looks to be in favor of Platinum still.
23 April Interim Monthly still looks strong despite a slightly lower price print on the monthly chart having closed in March on a 6 months high around 50. Trend is up and a long way to go towards equilibrium with an initial target of 60.
16 April The trend is up and we should see a higher Pt to AG ratio over the next 6 months with a few pause moment along the way where Silver, as it often does, takes a rally lead.
23 April The Quarterly still confirms our long term view that Platinum is only at the start of a major 18 year trend reversal.
16 April The large bullish Risk weight to price divergence if shown on a quarterly chart is unusual and typically is a very bullish signal. We are only early in the 3rd quarter of this fresh Platinum bull trend against Silver. This picture is a lead indication to own a fair balance of Platinum precious metal within the metals portfolio.