Silver allocation more balanced versus Gol | 19 March 2021
Silver Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.
SILVER FORECAST
(Previous week in brackets)
| Silver/USD | Monthly | Weekly | Daily | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.20 (25.83) | ||||||
| Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↑) | |||
| % Risk Weight |
80 (80) | 40 (48) | 50 (34) | |||
| PM Distribution Total allocation 50% (55%) |
Pt:35% | Ag:30% | Au:35% | |||
Silver/USD live price
Silver comment
19 March 2021 close: Silver has a technical feel and look of losing some momentum. This may be temporary and we have decided to reduce our more commodity related silver weight by some 12% in favor of gold whilst holding the Platinum allocation unchanged. Silver allocation down from 35 to 30% and Gold up from 30 to 35%. This is a minor adjustment confirming a slightly altered shorter term risk pattern in favor gold versus silver. The Silver super cycle price and risk is still in an uptrend. The 'old' thinking of owning gold or silver bars and coins that can be used for future barter is likely to swap places with 'new' thinking where multiple digital applications, away from direct fiat, will be used to exchange value at lightning speed around the globe. Also for the sake of saving vaulting expenses we need to adopt a critical eye on best wealth preservation practices.
12 March 2021 close: Last week we printed a false risk level for monthly Silver (53 instead of 70, which we adjusted). The technical picture is changing a little in favor of Gold and Platinum. Silver has shown very strong advances in recent weeks but for Gold but this could be short lived. As we are still inside our initial expected equilibrium range we'd be looking to reduce silver allocation from 35% to just under 30%, but only if the Hourly Gold Silver ratio drops into an oversold condition, which could be Monday or Tuesday. See the Gold/Silver ratio analysis below.
Quarterly chart since 1971
Silver risk analysis
19 March 2021: The broad long term risk trend for Silver is up, but with the Monthly Gold/Silver ratio in deep oversold range at 4% risk, we could see a bit of a correction, which may even be volatile. Hence some potential caution after a long but sharp silver correction during the past 12 months. It does not change our long term outlook which remains very form, hence a minor adjustment in allocation and only if the hourly Gold/Silver ratio gives that signal the coming week.
GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
| GOLD/SILVER Ratio | Monthly | Weekly | Daily | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66.24 (66.30) | ||||||
| Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↑) | ↓ (↓) | |||
| % Risk Weight |
4 (4) | 24 (20) | 53 (54) | |||
| PM Distribution Total allocation 50% (55%) |
Pt:35% | Ag:30% | Au:35% | |||
Gold/Silver Ratio live price
Gold Silver ratio analysis
19 March 2021 close: The Gold Silver ratio traded in a 2% range between 65.75 and 67.15 closing barely changed at 66.24. The technical picture still favors Silver to continue its long term uptrend vs Gold, but short term pressures seem to call for a pause. Hence our slight adjustment of the core precious metals allocation of 5% from Silver to Gold.
12 March 2021 close: Hourly risk is in a sharp downtrend and not finished whilst Daily risk is in fairly neutral ground making up its mind. Weekly may show bullish divergence and Monthly risk is still down but in deeply oversold territory. This is the reason we may be triggered to reduce our silver allocation only by 5% in favor of both Gold and Platinum.
PLATINUM/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
| PLATINUM/SILVER Ratio | Monthly | Weekly | Daily | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45.72 (45.67) | ||||||
| Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↓ (↑) | ↑ (↑) | |||
| % Risk Weight |
50 (51) | 85 (92) | 64 (48) | |||
| PM Distribution Total allocation 50% (55%) |
Pt:35% | Ag:30% | Au:35% | |||
Platinum/Silver Daily 19 March
19 March 2021 close: Risk weight Trend in Daily time scale is up. We have re-allocated a small amounty of silver in favor of Gold. Our physical Pt allocation is now equal to Gold at 35% with silver at 30%. Otherwise no change
12 March 2021 close: The straight uptrend last week is strong but can be expected to pause for a day or two. Short term this market is pointing up, which gives a bit more comfort to PT than AG. The coming days may see just a little bit of swap from Silver to Platinum. As this ratio is not widely traded it is more difficult to keep track of say 10 minute by 10 minute moves, but it serves as an indicator for the broader trend and our still favoured precious metals portfolio allocation.
Platinum/Silver Weekly 19 March
19 March 2021 close: The weekly time frame risk weight is under some pressure from higher levels without much price change. This pressure without much price may continue a while longer as daily risk keeps pushing upward.
12 March 2021 close: Weekly risk weight has landed in a high risk range now at 90% and could show bearish divergence upon turning down. We believe though that Long term Monthly and Quarterly risk are leading and which should drive this ratio closer to equilibrium around 65. This still favors PT over AG longer term.
Platinum/Silver Interim Monthly 19 March
19 March 2021 close: The Monthly time frame is a leading direction with some way to go before reaching any kind of traditional technically overbought condition. This should take the ratio into the 60's handle during 2021.
12 March 2021 close: Monthly risk weight at 50% is in a strong uptrend and offers plenty room for a strong Platinum advance in coming months. PT favoured over AG.
Platinum/Silver Interim Quarterly 19 March
19 March 2021 close: This chart looks rather bullish starting a price bull trend from a high risk weight percentage divergence. This chart would aim for a median ratio level of closer to 80 and could be leading the primary Monthly long term trend.
12 March 2021 close: Interim quarterly which ends in 2 1/2 weeks still has the benefit of a high level bullish divergence developing, but not finished in Q1 2021. With the PT/AG Ratio still well below long term equilibrium and risk weight just over 60% there is plenty time space to reach our objectives. PT favoured over AG which justifies the equal to larger PT allocation vs Gold and Silver.