Silver Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.

SILVER FORECAST

(Previous week in brackets)

Silver/USD live price

4 December:: As mentioned last week, Silver again held its own with price performance in line with gold. Silver needs to tobreak 25.90. This will trigger a move towards 30 which isn't necessarily price resistance only because it stopped there in July 2020. A break of Silver $30/oz would target a stronger interim resistance between $35/oz and $45/oz. It is only 8 months ago that we reached that Covid-19 driven low of $11.63/oz. Admittedly against our expectations. A very strong performance followed whilst we are now 4 months in consolidation. The Weekly indicators are now developing a very positive technical picture and an upward turn of the current downtrend would fuel a more rapid price increase. This is our silver forecast for 2021 and for now Silver will remain the slightly overweight hold in the precious metals portfolio.

27 November:: The past years would have triggered an unprecedented negative reaction in the silver price as gold got hammered. Not anymore. Even though silver had a worse week, certainly it wasn't dramatic relative to Gold. We expect silver to hold the 21.15 support level. Our additional allocation from cash into physical Platinum last week dropped our silver allocation within the precious metals space from 45 to 40%. No change to staying fully committed to Silver for long term monetary safety.

GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

4 December:: Silver strong performance this past week turned the Gold/Silver ratio trend back down in interim Monthly and Short term Daily. Weekly risk weight unchanged and down whilst price reached a higher high and closed below the previous week's low setting a bearish tone. Our outlook for 2021 is to reach a level closer to 50. Unlike some market analysts we cannot possibly forecast a ratio of 15 as there is no evidence that this represents any kind of modern times valuation. In a mad mad world anything can happen of course. The ride however is likely to be bumpy. We stay committed to an overweight of Silver in the PM space, assisted by a market with strong liquidity.

27 November:: All risk weight trends are up at this moment with a good possibility of developing bearish divergence between short and long term risk. Silver weakness drove the Gold/Silver ratio higher as expected, but not as violently as in previous years. We could still see a further rally towards the 90 level, but this potential will becomes less if Gold and Silver find a near term bottom. Our Silver allocation is built on the expectation that the Gold/Silver ratio will move towards its long term equilibrium somewhere between 20 and 60 within the next few years. A stronger monetary benefit should be the result from this wealth prerservation strategy.