Silver showing expected short term weakness | 26 March 2021
Silver Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.
SILVER FORECAST
(Previous week in brackets)
| Silver/USD | Monthly | Weekly | Daily | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.05 (26.20) | ||||||
| Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↑) | |||
| % Risk Weight |
78 (80) | 35 (40) | 24 (50) | |||
| PM Distribution Total allocation 50% (55%) |
Pt:35% | Ag:30% | Au:35% | |||
Silver/USD live price
Silver comment
26 March 2021 close: Silver did suffer more loss than its metal rivals losing 4% during the week. It may take a while longer for silver to resume its supercycle uptrend since medium term risk weight is still pointing south. A possible sharp down move could trigger another rebalance of metals in favor of Silver although the present distribution feels pretty safe long term.
19 March 2021 close: Silver has a technical feel and look of losing some momentum. This may be temporary and we have decided to reduce our more commodity related silver weight by some 12% in favor of gold whilst holding the Platinum allocation unchanged. Silver allocation down from 35 to 30% and Gold up from 30 to 35%. This is a minor adjustment confirming a slightly altered shorter term risk pattern in favor gold versus silver. The Silver super cycle price and risk is still in an uptrend. The 'old' thinking of owning gold or silver bars and coins that can be used for future barter is likely to swap places with 'new' thinking where multiple digital applications, away from direct fiat, will be used to exchange value at lightning speed around the globe. Also for the sake of saving vaulting expenses we need to adopt a critical eye on best wealth preservation practices.
Quarterly chart since 1971
Silver risk analysis
26 March 2021: There is no long term change from last week's outlook and comment below:
The broad long term risk trend for Silver is up, but with the Monthly Gold/Silver ratio in deep oversold range at 4% risk, we could see a bit of a correction, which may even be volatile. Hence some potential caution after a long but sharp silver correction during the past 12 months. It does not change our long term outlook which remains very form, hence a minor adjustment in allocation and only if the hourly Gold/Silver ratio gives that signal the coming week.
GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
| GOLD/SILVER Ratio | Monthly | Weekly | Daily | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68.95 (66.24) | ||||||
| Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↑) | ↓ (↓) | |||
| % Risk Weight |
5 (4) | 35 (24) | 80 (53) | |||
| PM Distribution Total allocation 50% (55%) |
Pt:35% | Ag:30% | Au:35% | |||
Gold/Silver Ratio live price
Gold Silver ratio analysis
26 March 2021 close: The Gold Silver ratio could be in correction a while a longer and some of these daily moves can be quite strong as past experience has proven. We will have to sit this one out especially with Monthly risk weight in low risk territory and looking to turn up. Last week's upturn did cause early bearish short term divergence between Daily and longer time scales near gthe end of the week. That is indicative of a market that wants to test recent lows again 'just' 10% lower. No change in current allocation.
19 March 2021 close: The Gold Silver ratio traded in a 2% range between 65.75 and 67.15 closing barely changed at 66.24. The technical picture still favors Silver to continue its long term uptrend vs Gold, but short term pressures seem to call for a pause. Hence our slight adjustment of the core precious metals allocation of 5% from Silver to Gold.
PLATINUM/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
| PLATINUM/SILVER Ratio | Monthly | Weekly | Daily | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47.26 (45.72) | ||||||
| Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↑) | |||
| % Risk Weight |
54 (50) | 81 (85) | 43 (64) | |||
| PM Distribution Total allocation 50% (55%) |
Pt:35% | Ag:30% | Au:35% | |||
Platinum/Silver Daily 26 March
26 March 2021 close: Risk weight dropped during the week and recovered strongly on Friday still well below previous week. The Ratio actually improved to 47.26 which is a bullish signal. Platinum still holds the best papers for some time to come against both Gold and Silver
19 March 2021 close: Risk weight Trend in Daily time scale is up. We have re-allocated a small amounty of silver in favor of Gold. Our physical Pt allocation is now equal to Gold at 35% with silver at 30%. Otherwise no change
Platinum/Silver Weekly 26 March
26 March 2021 close: Target ratio is mid 50's in the near future, roughly a 130 dollar Platinum rise versus the same silver price. Long term target is to seek equilibrium at that 50 year average of closer to 85. As a commodity Platinum is still very cheap compared with Palladium whilst in limited supply.
19 March 2021 close: The weekly time frame risk weight is under some pressure from higher levels without much price change. This pressure without much price may continue a while longer as daily risk keeps pushing upward.
Platinum/Silver Interim Monthly 26 March
26 March 2021 close: The Monthly chart shows how early days this recovery is. When we speak equilibrium we could see any level and even much higher as we see on the chart checking the early years of the century. The current level appears simply too low risk to not participate.
b>19 March 2021 close: The Monthly time frame is a leading direction with some way to go before reaching any kind of traditional technically overbought condition. This should take the ratio into the 60's handle during 2021.
Platinum/Silver Interim Quarterly 26 March
26 March 2021 close: We are just a few days short of quarter end and the new quarter shouldn't surprise in a negative direction. The bull trend for this ratio has some way to travel, hence the slight Platinum overweight in the precious metals portfolio.
19 March 2021 close: This chart looks rather bullish starting a price bull trend from a high risk weight percentage divergence. This chart would aim for a median ratio level of closer to 80 and could be leading the primary Monthly long term trend.