Silver solid hold | 28 May 2021
Silver Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.
SILVER FORECAST(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)|
|% Risk Weight||77 (77)||73 (72)||55 (60)|
|PM Distribution Total allocation 50% (35%)||Pt:35%||Ag:30%||Au:35%|
28 May 2021 close: Technical outlook remains very much positive for silver/us dollar. The long term hold of physical silver may require further patience but the overall picture is still strong and lacks typical long term topping action that could be many months of years away still with a potential 'mark-up' surprise along the way. No Change.
No Platinum/Silver ratio update this week as no change in technical status and our balanced metals portfolio distribution either.
21 May 2021 close: Long term Monthly risk weight still waiting to prove typical key data that a top is building. This hasn't even begun without showing extreme high risk weight levels. Same for Quarterly and such event may be years away still, although many asset classes are getting nervous on the back of (too) many influencer comments on social and even mainstream media. For now still a bit up and down. Strong Hold. No Change.
14 May 2021 close: We still cannot tell whether Silver will break out of its range versus gold, but the action last week, inflation numbers and comments from officials are looking very good for the PM space. Silver may finally start to break its consolidation against the USD and start its journey towards our next target of $37.00. No Change.
Silver Q risk analysis
28 May 2021: No change to a strong supercycle uptrend developing.
21 May 2021: The below chart of course doesn't move much if prices remain static as they have done recently. The trend is up and as we are approaching higher risk weight going into Q3 and Q4 could see the development of the fast move north. This won't be the $100 target as that is more likely to develop at a much later stage.
GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)|
|9 (9)||55 (54)||82 (73)|
Total allocation 50% (35%)
Gold Silver ratio analysis
28 May 2021 close: The Gold/Silver ratio still doesn't signal a clear corrective direction or trend continuation towards long term equilibrium. Whilst weekly is slowly building higher risk versus monthly and daily reaching more top risk levels we could see a bit more volatility towards a lower gold/silver ratio. Monthly risk at the same time is low and trending up but has not set a real technical bottom with bullish divergence. This would be the expected pattern at the end of a longer term price cycle. Hence no change to our balanced metals distribution
21 May 2021 close: Silver quickly retraced last from an initial rally vs gold and the gold silver ratio appears to be building some bearish divergence in the short and medium term risk weight pattern. As the Long term monthly has yet to finish a proper down trend this price consolidation range may continue a while longer yet. A turn down in the short term time scales may be a next opportunity to increase silver somewhat but even if silver start to strongly outpace gold on the upside, a roughly balanced 1/3 silver allocation in precious metals is low risk protection with medium volatility.