Silver train slowly leaving platform 1 | 29 Dec, 2020
Silver Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|68 (68)||52 (40)||56 (91)|
Total allocation 55% (50%)
29 December: The metaphore 'Silver train slowly leaving platform 1' is becoming more visible in our favoured technical tools.
Silver was ranging on the rail yard between $23 and $27 the past 4 months. This, still way undervalued, commodity appears to search for freedom on price discovery. Several sharp upticks and subsequent reversals may now be setting a floor which could be significant. With all time scales including interim Monthly now in uptrends from fairly neutral positions, the next intitial rally could be quite strong. Silver and Platinum, possibly more so than Gold, are also likely to benefit from at least some diversification away from the much more speculative crypto space where serious money can be made (and lost). Maybe not today or tomorrow, but soon. The sheer size of the cryptocurrency advance seen these past few months alone will drive the institutional investors and high risk hedge fund managers on board those crypto trains to make a few minor side steps onto the Silver train, the Platinu train and the Gold train even as they reach full track speed. So, as crypto trains come to pass alongside the Precious metals trains we could see a few wagons being swapped. If crypto stays in this momentum, some risk diversification in slower but still attractive traditional asset classes like precious metals is extremely likely and the volume numbers would be substantial. If the crypto train slows down and risk diversification starts to materialize for that reason, there will not be too many alternatives beyond precious metals because the Big Boys are already loaded on the FAANG type equities. Many other crypto tokens will also benefit from an almost inevitable risk diversification away from Bitcoin and even faster moving ERC20 platform crypto currencies some of which have increased well over 1000% this year alone. Will 2021 be that killer year?
24 December: The unchanged weekly close just before Christmas with all timescales in fairly neutral risk weight is a positive signal. We had a slight preview last week of what's coming when silver rallied sharply above the 27.00 handle before dropping nearly 10% again. Because Silver is a higher volume speculative commodity we may expect a sharp rally into the higher 30's followed by a sharp correction based on potential medium term bearish divergence in Weekly timescale. A 40% advance from present levels is an objective we have held for some time and it looks this market is building up for just that. No Change.
18 December: Silver had one of its best weeks and months with an 8% uptick just last week. A few closes above 26.00 turns Silver into a very strong asset towards our next objective of 37.00. Technically this market requires a fairly strong early advance to turn the Monthly risk trend from down to up, which would be a very strong signal. Physical Silver remains our slight overweight allocation in Precious metals. No change.