Silver turning up Medium term | 11 Dec


Silver Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.

SILVER FORECAST

(Previous week in brackets)

Silver/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
23.86 (24.12)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
63 (68) 30 (30) 65 (12)
PM Distribution
Total allocation 55% (50%)
Ag:40% Au:30% Pt:30%

Silver/USD live price


Silver comment

11 December:: Just like Gold/USD, The Medium term Weekly Silver risk trend turned up whilst the Long term Monthly downtrend became more neutral. This is generally a positive sign, but anyhting can happen short term. The critically important observartion is that we have, as commented before, not seen any bearish price to risk divergence in the Medium term and Long term time frames. This means that technical risk to hold Silver longer term is low, whilst holding physical Silver in uncertain times is as important. No change to the general outlook and we recommend a slight overweight of Silver in the Precious Metals total stock.

4 December:: As mentioned last week, Silver again held its own with price performance in line with gold. Silver needs to tobreak 25.90. This will trigger a move towards 30 which isn't necessarily price resistance only because it stopped there in July 2020. A break of Silver $30/oz would target a stronger interim resistance between $35/oz and $45/oz. It is only 8 months ago that we reached that Covid-19 driven low of $11.63/oz. Admittedly against our expectations. A very strong performance followed whilst we are now 4 months in consolidation. The Weekly indicators are now developing a very positive technical picture and an upward turn of the current downtrend would fuel a more rapid price increase. This is our silver forecast for 2021 and for now Silver will remain the slightly overweight hold in the precious metals portfolio.


GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

GOLD/SILVER Ratio LT-M MT-W ST-D
76.50 (75.75)
Trend ↑ (↓) ↓ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
15 (15) 47 (50) 26 (20)
PM Distribution
Total allocation 55% (50%)
Ag:40% Au:30% Pt:30%

Gold/Silver Ratio live price


Gold Silver analysis

11 December:: The Gold Silver ratio has a mixed technical balance and could be seeking another intermediate top nearer 90 before taking another dive towards equilibrium. With Daily and Monthly risk turning up from down and Weekly turning down from up, the short term direction is anyone's guess. But even though Long term Monthly risk is in oversold territory, we must first see a bullish divergence in one of the longer term time frames. That means a significant price move downward over a longer period of time. This results in a continued hold in favor of silver in te precious metals space. price objective 50-60.

4 December:: Silver strong performance this past week turned the Gold/Silver ratio trend back down in interim Monthly and Short term Daily. Weekly risk weight unchanged and down whilst price reached a higher high and closed below the previous week's low setting a bearish tone. Our outlook for 2021 is to reach a level closer to 50. Unlike some market analysts we cannot possibly forecast a ratio of 15 as there is no evidence that this represents any kind of modern times valuation. In a mad mad world anything can happen of course. The ride however is likely to be bumpy. We stay committed to an overweight of Silver in the PM space, assisted by a market with strong liquidity.



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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, SILVER FORECAST 2021 | EYEFORGOLD.

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