Silver returns to primary uptrend | 06 November, 2020
Silver Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) – Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) – Short Term Daily (ST-D) – and Hourly (not shown) data.
SILVER FORECAST
(Previous week in brackets)
| Silver/USD | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.57 (23.59) | ||||||
| Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↓) | |||
| % Risk Weight |
70 (76) | 42 (45) | 72 (27) | |||
| PM Distribution Total allocation 50% (50%) |
Ag:45% | Au:35% | Pt:20% | |||
Silver/USD live price
06 November:: Silver followed the same advance pattern as Gold and never showed a medium term or Long term overbought condition when it reached the 30 handle back in August. Even though this market can be very tough and volatile at times we confidently stay with the primary trend that can be expected to first develop bearish (lower risk to higher price) divergence in both Medium term and Long term time frames. And that first intermediary potential price top looks to be a long way into the future of the present cycle. No Change.
31 October:: Horizontal support, as indicated a few weeks back stays at 21.15. Silver, as usual, show more volatility in any direction and following gold lost an extra 2 1/2% last week as world equity markets continued to soften. Whilst Equity markets continue to look weak longer term, silver will find its next bottom sometime soon. No Change.
GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
| GOLD/SILVER Ratio | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75.93 (79.19) | ||||||
| Trend | ↑ (↓) | ↑ (↑) | ↓ (↓) | |||
| % Risk Weight |
15 (13) | 42 (39) | 27 (65) | |||
| PM Distribution Total allocation 50% (50%) |
Ag:45% | Au:35% | Pt:20% | |||
Gold/Silver Ratio live price
06 November:: The Gold/Silver ratio comment made last week still applies. We cannot exclude a final intermdiary blow off top nearer 87.00 which would potentially drive strong bearish divergence between Weekly and Monthly risk weight. As Monthly risk is turning up in this first November week we may need more patience to reach our Gold/Silver equilibrium objectives of 60/65 and 30-40. The 200 month Moving average, which has held since 2013 is now at 65.85. and close to 2 year horizontal support at 64.33. These will be levels to watch once we reach them. No change.
31 October:: Risk weight still appears in a corrective mode with overhead resistance at 86.35. The Gold/Silver ratio remains difficult to predict in any time frame but short and longer term tools are still showing risk pressure to the downside. This makes our intermediate equilibrium objective of sub 65 still the safer bet. No Change.