Silver/USD intermediary correction begins to slow | 23 October, 2020


Silver Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) – Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) – Short Term Daily (ST-D) – and Hourly (not shown) data.

SILVER FORECAST

(Previous week in brackets)

Silver/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
24.54 (24.11)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
77 (78) 53 (55) 70 (50)
PM Distribution
Total allocation 50% (50%)
Ag:45% Au:35% Pt:20%

Silver/USD live price


23 October:: The early August 30 handle high for Silver vs USD was followed by some serious and typical Silver volatility. The medium term picture, like Gold, is now showing marginal signs of consolidation before fresh direction upward develops. The silver price is still subject to manipulation by institutions believed to be immortal. We hold on to our longer term targets. No Change.

16 October:: The current weak composition of our tools could develop a finishing move down into 21.15. Anything is possible with higher volatility in metals. Both daily and weekly chart show the possibility of an ABC correction from the the 30 handle high still needing to finish. Idf that happens the above chart is likely to show bullish divergence. Silver remains a critical wealth preservation hold looking to outperform gold in order to catch up with its historic long term higher value ag gold. No Change.


GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

GOLD/SILVER Ratio LT-M MT-W ST-D
77.06 (78.43)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
12 (13) 32 (31) 25 (40)
PM Distribution
Total allocation 50% (50%)
Ag:45% Au:35% Pt:20%

Gold/Silver Ratio live price


23 October:: All risk weight timeframes are down but not strongly and nearing support levels. This is typical for all markets that have suffered badly and have disappointed investors. Having come down from the March highs to current levels around 75 represents an opportunity to reduce earlier losses or re-allocate with small profits. This takes time and the better strategy is just sit tight and wait for that definitive moment where Silver returns to its natural long term equilibrium with gold sub 40. Hence staying with an overweight silver in the precious metals space. No Change.

16 October:: The technical picture for the Gold/Silver cross is similar to Silver/USD and possibly making an attempt to finish a second wave correction towards a high 80’s handle. This does not change the longer term picture that typically requires bullish divergence developing with a higher long term risk weight bottom in combination with a much lower ratio. No Change.



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