Silver/USD building a solid base | 4 September, 2020

Silver/USD	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
26.85 (27.53)
Trend	↑ (↑)	↓ (↓)	↓ (↑)
% Risk Weight	86 (81)	79 (80)	45 (61)
Allocation	>Pt:20% Ag:45% Au:35% (Total 100%)

4 September:: We have split our PM forecast blog into the three separate metal sections Gold, Silver and Platinum. The Silver and Platinum sections also show resp. the Gold/Silver and Gold/Platinum ratio analysis. Market comments on Silver prior to July 2020 are on the Gold Blog

Silver/USD is currently finding some resistance at the mid 2011 to mid 2012 support levels and has definitively broken into a firm secular advance cycle. Same patience is strongly recommended. No change.

28 August:: Silver is consolidating nicely near or above $26.90 which was an important support level between Dec 2010 and March 2013. This also is critical to open up for a next move into the higher 30’s handles. The position still feels solid with silver looking to also advance versus gold. No Change.

GOLD/SILVER Ratio	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
71.37 (72.20)
Trend	↓ (↓)	↓ (↓)	↓ (↑)
% Risk Weight	24 (24)	8 (8)	21 (19)
Allocation	>Pt:20% Ag:45% Au:35% (Total 100%)

4 September:: The expected retracement towards equilibrium is still underway and it may take several months to reach those 60-65 levels or lower.. We would expect to see bullisg divergence in the weekly and monthly time frames whilst the Daily risk weight is already positioning for bearish ratio divergence. That could easily mean silver dropping back and the ratio reversing towards 80. The technical characteristics are more positive for our outlook to materialize. No Change to maintaing some Silver overweight in the total precious metals allocation.

28 August:: Gold/Silver Hourly risk weight is turning down at the 80 level with bearish divergence vs daily and weekly. This increases the chance of the current pause setting up for a further move into the two most recent decades equilibrium nearer 60-65. the 200 Month moving average is currently at 65.50. This would definitely become a shorter term target. Besides, Silver will be part of a monetary reset that cannot be avoided anymore, and could catapult silver towards an even lower modern times historic equilibrium towards 30. No Change in maintaining full allocation.

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