Silver/USD not quite ready to explode | 11 September


SILVER FORECAST

(Previous week in brackets)

Silver/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
26.67 (26.85)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
86 (86) 78 (79) 32 (45)
Allocation Limit (50%) Invested Pt:20% Ag:45% Au:35% (Total 100%)

Silver/USD live price


11 September:: Silver USD still finds it hard to decisively break the 27.00 handle. We could see a bit more volatility or consolidation to the downside as a result but it does appear that a solid base is being built around 26.00. The medium term outlook looks technically strong with that 37.30 objective once we see the back of 26.90 for an extended period of days. Strong hold. No Change

4 September:: We have split our PM forecast blog into the three separate metal sections Gold, Silver and Platinum. The Silver and Platinum sections also show resp. the Gold/Silver and Gold/Platinum ratio analysis. Market comments on Silver prior to July 2020 are on the Gold Blog

Silver/USD is currently finding some resistance at the mid 2011 to mid 2012 support levels and has definitively broken into a firm secular advance cycle. Same patience is strongly recommended. No change.


GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

GOLD/SILVER Ratio LT-M MT-W ST-D
72.36 (71.37)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
12 (24) 8 (8) 70 (21)
PM Allocation Limit (50%) Invested Pt:20% Ag:45% Au:35% (Total 100%)

Gold/Silver Ratio live price


11 September:: The Gold Silver Ratio of course moves largly as a result of Silver price volatility. With a 1.5% uptick last week we are looking at lower risk Medium term and Long term possibly indicating a pause in the substantial and expected decline since March 2020. Weekly risk weight turned up from down at risk weight = 8, yet Daily risk moved rapidly from 20 to 70. That is short term bearish divergence being developed. We continue to look for the much lower recentg Gold/Silver ratio equilibrium at around 60-65 and likely the next lower level sub 40 once that move gets underway. No Change in keeping a substantial allocation to silver currently at 45% of total precious metals.

4 September:: The expected retracement towards equilibrium is still underway and it may take several months to reach those 60-65 levels or lower.. We would expect to see bullisg divergence in the weekly and monthly time frames whilst the Daily risk weight is already positioning for bearish ratio divergence. That could easily mean silver dropping back and the ratio reversing towards 80. The technical characteristics are more positive for our outlook to materialize. No Change to maintaing some Silver overweight in the total precious metals allocation.

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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2020 Forecast, SILVER FORECAST 2020 | EYEFORGOLD.

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