Silver/USD to find support at 21.15 | 02 October

Silver/USD	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
23.69 (22.82)
Trend	↓ (↑)	↓ (↓)	↓ (↓)
% Risk Weight	77 (86)	60 (68)	34 (18)
Allocation Limit (50%)	Invested	Pt:20% Ag:45% Au:35% (Total 100%)

02 October:: Silver/USD may not have quite finished its correction from the 30 handle high in August and after a massive 160% rally from the March low. The price is technically hovering in a bottom building price range as all timeframes are ‘down’. That correction bottom should preferable hold around 21.15 or the July 2016 high. For wealth preservationists a further drop can be frustrating temporarily, but should not take the focus away from the bigger picture. The problem with trading this market is that a temporary exit may only be recoverable at a much higher level if something systemic happens that could and proably would immediately lift precious metals. Hence no change.

25 September:: a significant drop in the Gold price generally fuels the Silver kitchen getting really hot, which is exactly what happened again last week with a 20% price drop. We are still in very positive territory even though technical support doesn’t come in until we reach 18.00 or so. Impossible to say where the current drop ends. Ratio’s often do not apply to Silver and we must look the what we can expect from long term experience. Both weekly and Monthly risk needs to develop bearish divergence first and we haven’t come even close. It is tough to be patient. Yet the only responsible risk approach in the present financial climate. No Change.

GOLD/SILVER Ratio	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
79.81 (81.10)
Trend	↓ (↓)	↑ (↑)	↑ (↓)
% Risk Weight	14 (15)	24 (15)	61 (78)
PM Allocation Limit (50%)	Invested	Pt:20% Ag:45% Au:35% (Total 100%)

02 October:: The Gold/Silver ratio found support in August in Nomansland. Basically it just stopped and without a rapid enough continuation traders will take the opposite side. Our patience to expect a much lower than current equilibrium will rewarded. It takes time for history to repeat itself. It always does. No Change.

25 September:: It is hard to make a price projection short term, especially as our closest Long term projections haven’t been met yet as they tend to do throughout history. The 15% rally last week is indeed larger than expected and hoped for but it should and must not take us off guard. The ratio HAs NOT bottomed yet and everything we see is highly speculative cover in an extremely suspect environment. Fear then overtakes common sense. We stick strongly to our equilibrium targets, hence no change.

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