Silver/USD offers stable portfolio support | 18 September

Silver/USD	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
26.71 (26.67)
Trend	↑ (↑)	↓ (↓)	↓ (↑)
% Risk Weight	86 (86)	77 (78)	38 (32)
Allocation Limit (50%)	Invested	Pt:20% Ag:45% Au:35% (Total 100%)

18 September:: Silver USD, like Gold, moved little last week and appears to possibly develop bullish divergence in Daily time frame.The current Silver price level in high twenties is holding. It is the third time we reach this level in a strong uptrend but this time with a difference. Silver led the bull market in 1979 and 2011, but now follows the leading wealth preservation metal, which is Gold. This is the difference between a speculative technical advance and a technical fundamental advance. Patience, no change.

11 September:: Silver USD still finds it hard to decisively break the 27.00 handle. We could see a bit more volatility or consolidation to the downside as a result but it does appear that a solid base is being built around 26.00. The medium term outlook looks technically strong with that 37.30 objective once we see the back of 26.90 for an extended period of days. Strong hold. No Change

GOLD/SILVER Ratio	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
72.55 (72.36)
Trend	↓ (↓)	↑ (↑)	↑ (↑)
% Risk Weight	10 (12)	9 (8)	67 (70)
PM Allocation Limit (50%)	Invested	Pt:20% Ag:45% Au:35% (Total 100%)

18 September:: The Gold Silver ratio feels like a longer consolidation which could easily be a 10% range. The next more rapid silver advance is likely to take place following strong and renewed upward pressure on Gold or Platinum. Even though the Weekly risk weight turned up with Monthly getting oversold, this is NOT an oversold ratio technically. We are confident with the current metals distribution and the outlook towards both medium term and long term equilibrium at 60-65 and then a 30-40 handle. No Change.

11 September:: The Gold Silver Ratio of course moves largly as a result of Silver price volatility. With a 1.5% uptick last week we are looking at lower risk Medium term and Long term possibly indicating a pause in the substantial and expected decline since March 2020. Weekly risk weight turned up from down at risk weight = 8, yet Daily risk moved rapidly from 20 to 70. That is short term bearish divergence being developed. We continue to look for the much lower recentg Gold/Silver ratio equilibrium at around 60-65 and likely the next lower level sub 40 once that move gets underway. No Change in keeping a substantial allocation to silver currently at 45% of total precious metals.

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