Silver/USD always a hot kitchen | 25 September

Silver/USD	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
22.82 (26.71)
Trend	↓ (↑)	↓ (↓)	↓ (↓)
% Risk Weight	81 (86)	68 (77)	18 (38)
Allocation Limit (50%)	Invested	Pt:20% Ag:45% Au:35% (Total 100%)

25 September:: a significant drop in the Gold price generally fuels the Silver kitchen getting really hot, which is exactly what happened again last week with a 20% price drop. We are still in very positive territory even though technical support doesn’t come in until we reach 18.00 or so. Impossible to say where the current drop ends. Ratio’s often do not apply to Silver and we must look the what we can expect from long term experience. Both weekly and Monthly risk needs to develop bearish divergence first and we haven’t come even close. It is tough to be patient. Yet the only responsible risk approach in the present financial climate. No Change.

18 September:: Silver USD, like Gold, moved little last week and appears to possibly develop bullish divergence in Daily time frame.The current Silver price level in high twenties is holding. It is the third time we reach this level in a strong uptrend but this time with a difference. Silver led the bull market in 1979 and 2011, but now follows the leading wealth preservation metal, which is Gold. This is the difference between a speculative technical advance and a technical fundamental advance. Patience, no change.

GOLD/SILVER Ratio	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
81.10 (72.55)
Trend	↓ (↓)	↑ (↑)	↓ (↑)
% Risk Weight	15 (10)	15 (9)	78 (67)
PM Allocation Limit (50%)	Invested	Pt:20% Ag:45% Au:35% (Total 100%)

25 September:: It is hard to make a price projection short term, especially as our closest Long term projections haven’t been met yet as they tend to do throughout history. The 15% rally last week is indeed larger than expected and hoped for but it should and must not take us off guard. The ratio HAs NOT bottomed yet and everything we see is highly speculative cover in an extremely suspect environment. Fear then overtakes common sense. We stick strongly to our equilibrium targets, hence no change.

18 September:: The Gold Silver ratio feels like a longer consolidation which could easily be a 10% range. The next more rapid silver advance is likely to take place following strong and renewed upward pressure on Gold or Platinum. Even though the Weekly risk weight turned up with Monthly getting oversold, this is NOT an oversold ratio technically. We are confident with the current metals distribution and the outlook towards both medium term and long term equilibrium at 60-65 and then a 30-40 handle. No Change.

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