02 July 2021 close: At the start of this third 2021 quarter The Silver quarterly chart still looks strong. The Monthly chart develops into the narrowing consolidation preparing for the next move which is expected to move up as major trend changes never come with a single move of the same in one direction of the same degree. The 155% increase seen during that first move which lasted 6 months, is a signal that there's more to come. And although silver looks potentially more attractive than the other metals at this moment, there is yet to develop technical evidence for silver to become a WallStreetBets style asset. The Gold Silver ratio is still not in a position to confirm that Silver break out. Thus from a pure risk perspective we would not look to apply a higher allocation to silver. If that break comes or is signalled in advance there is plenty opportunity left in the bag. No Change to our near 1/3rd allocation.

25 June 2021 close: After 10 months of Silver/USDollar consolidation, Silver feels like bottoming soon. Against the USD it looks technically feasible to see one more drop from the Daily flag formation into the lower 25 handle, but the feeling is for Silver to bottom soon for a next major advance into new highs. The Gold Silver ratio supports this view with Gold/Silver ratio looking to break down again for a fresh move towards long term equilibrium. We are again looking to push more into the metals including silver to bring the balance of the 3 prime precious metals to exactly 1/3rd each. No Change for now.

GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

02 July 2021 close: At the start of July the interim reading is still an uptrend and not particularly conclusive. Weekly trend actually turned up on a pivot whilst the length of the conslidation in the Gold/Silver ratio is still extending. This makes it hard to consider a significant opportunity although the weight of that opportunity looks to be in favor of Silver. Interim Quarterly risk weight (chart below) ticked up but cannot be used for up/down confirmation. We still think that quarterly risk weight will drop into the 5-10% zone and this can still be 6 or 9 months away. Thus, stay put and wait. No Change.

25 June 2021 close: 6 months of consolidation in a 15% max price range has not brought a major bottom in any relevant timescale. Monthly risk trend has traded around 5-10% for much of this year and doesn't appear finished on the downside. Weekly and daily risk weight is still pushing south. A break of the 2021 low sets up for a target towards the 2011 Gold/Silver ratio low of 30.45. Such a break, which requires at least a few days of close below 62.14 would be tempting to add an opportunity trade for Silver and possibly Platinum as well if that ratio to Silver continues to follow our expected pattern. The quarterly risk trend chart below has not finished either as we would expect a bottom closer to 5% which may happen based on a sizeable price move. No Change to our balanced metals portfolio distribution for now.