Silver USdollar and Gold/Silver ratio risk position 06 August
Silver Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.
SILVER FORECAST(Previous upodate in brackets)
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)||↓ (↑)|
|% Risk Weight||68 (76)||15 (22)||36 (38)|
|PM Distribution Total allocation 50% (35%)||Pt:35%||Ag:30%||Au:35%|
06 August 2021 close: Even though Silver accompanied the other pm's on its downward path right at the end of the first August trading week, real downside risk starts to materialize below $22.00. This would be unexpected and does hurt many late upper 20's handle investors. We still have plenty room to manouver and wouldn't call for additional investment at this level or any level until we see clear evidence that the downtrend is over. Precious metals have been hyped up by many alt media influencers and by now anyone that decided to invest a long time ago will not have an inclination nor the funds to invest more at this time. That would be wrong anyway. Holding on to current investment positions with funds that can afford to be locked away is the smartest risk approach right now. We have just entered the lower half of the consolidation price range and it can easily take a few more months to kickstart the up trend again and that commenced at the Covid scare level in March 2020.
The quarterly risk chart below also indicates a consolidation without having reached any extremes yet.
So, no change to a balanced precious metals position including 30% of physical silver.
30 July 2021 close: The June/July consolidation between 25.50 and 26.50 was accompanied by many influencer comments favouring silver, however the market decided to take a small dive into the mid 24 handle before recovering nearly a full dollar at the end of July. The silver chart favours the analysis of a one year consolidation wuthin that large 25% price range of $22.00-30.00. Silver volatility remains high as always during these corrections. If our straight chart analysis is correct silver will break out on the upside working towards an intermediary top in 2022. No change to the allocation which is slightly underweight from Gold and Platinum. Quarterly risk weight still favours a finish at a higher risk level.
GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous update in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)||↑ (↑)|
|16 (13)||80 (80)||52 (65)|
Total allocation 50% (35%)
Gold Silver ratio analysis
06 August 2021 close: This week will not update the Platinum Silver ratio as we have reason to believe that sticking with our existing risk strategy should be tempered with.
Gold Silver is also still searching for direction and whilst we previously had a potential signal that the consolidation would perhaps end with silver gaining renewed relative strength, it now looks more likely that the Gold/Silver ratio may finish in the 75 to 80 range. So from a risk prespective, we prefer to stay with the current metals mix holding silver at around 30% of total precious metals. Quarterly is now in an uptrend which looks to be strong although it never went into deep oversold. We would expect this picture to become a corection in the major Silver uptrend versus gold and ultimately finding an equilibrium closer to historic averages well below 50. Increasingly important industrial use should keep demand relatively high for physical silver.
30 July 2021 close: The Gold/Silver cross is still seeking direction although weight of the position is in favour of silver regaining some upward momentum as weekly risk is in bearish divergence position versus monthly. Quarterly risk weight is now in an uptrend but doesn't look particularly strong. Reason to not doubt our confidence in the balanced metals allocation for a portfolio total of about 50%.