Silver USdollar and Gold/Silver ratio risk position 24 September
Silver Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.
SILVER FORECAST(Previous update in brackets)
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)|
|% Risk Weight||50 (50)||19 (22)||18 (15)|
|PM Distribution Total allocation 40% (40%)||Pt:40%||Ag:30%||Au:30%|
24 September 2021 close: Silver is currently resting on a support line at 22.40. So far the bottom of the corrective range since August 2020. Market behavior does not suggest that any further weakness would be anything but speculative fear. Even though we've prferred a little Platinum overweight, Silver doesn't look as vulnerable at this level as it did at $24.00 2 weeks ago. The quarterly risk chart below is pointing down, but hasn't reached a more reasonable expected highher high during the next several quarters. Silver is a very patient hold. No Change.
22 September 2021 close: We switched 10% of our silver position into Platinum on 13 Sept, which we still consider an opportunity given the substantial weakness following a strong major trend change last year. Silver during last week took a beating ending weakest of the most precious metals, where Palladium finally started to fall more into line with historic values. With a low of 22.03 reached last Monday Silver is probably quite attractive given the large 7% drop in 7 days. Daily risk weight has turned positive although there still seems to be some pressure. Weekly is in a downtrend since this week which could easilyend with bullish divergence if the market turns back up this week towards the 24.00 handle. Monthly risk weight is still down but we must first see bearish divergence for a major trend change (from up since March 2020 to down) to be confirmed. Although the quarterly risk chart is down, this image is likely false because we are only just into the uptrend from bullish divergence 18 months ago and
possibly flirting with a consolidation low around 21. Except for the minor opportunity shift into Platinum, No Change.
10 September 2021 close: Silver traditionally reacted with more speed, towards a near 4% correction, than gold during last week's move. We still favor the longer correction in a major cycle uptrend. We are moving 5% silver into Platinum on Monday as we see a lower risk opportunity to get overweight in physical Platinum on Platinum's path to long term equilibrium versus gold and silver. Otherwise no change.
GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous update in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)|
|36 (36)||82 (80)||72 (87)|
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
Gold Silver ratio analysis
24 September 2021 close: The pressure on Silver seems to be slowing down evidenced by possible Gold/Silver ratio bearish divergence confirmed in the daily time frame and a possible yet unconfirmed bearish divergence on weekly risk weight. It means that the correction of the Gold/Silver ratio that started at 62.00 in February 2021 may be ending fairly soon. With quarterly risk still pointing positive for Gold there is no reason to go overweight silver versus gold. Just a patient hold on both metals.
22 September 2021 close: Our Gold Silver spread remains unchanged with an equal weighting. Risk weight across our timescales daily, weekly and monthly still points towards possible more silver weakness in weeks to come. Once the metals move comes, silver must be a major allocation in this insurance portfolio.
10 September 2021 close: Some bullish short risk weight divergence is keeping pressure on silver versus gold. We still favor this to be part of a larger corrective move where silver will ultimately find higher ground towards long term equilibrium. We maintain our balanced allocation between Gold and Silver.