Silver USdollar and Gold/Silver ratio risk position 13 August
Silver Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.
SILVER FORECAST(Previous update in brackets)
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)|
|% Risk Weight||66 (66)||20 (15)||62 (35)|
|PM Distribution Total allocation 40% (40%)||Pt:33%||Ag:33%||Au:35%|
27 August 2021 close: Silver/USD worked its way below the one year triangle during the past 3 weeks but clearly held horizontal support for that same one year period. This is important. The coming month will be one to watch although we expect a similar trend to develop as for gold given that our indocators all have low risk readings in a medium term Weekly timescale. We do not see bullish divergence which can also indicate that we are still in that major uptrend which started in March 2020 and because we have yet to witness an expected bearish divergence from a higher price top. Patient long term hold.
13 August 2021 close: Where gold shed nearly 6% during the flash crash on Monday last week, Silver shed over 9% at $22,05, before recovering towards 23.71 during the week. We took the opportunity to add a little bit of Silver to the portfolio and completely balance the current price weight value between the three metals, Gold, Silver and Platinum. So we are now holding approx 33% of each. Our total virtual Metals allocation dropped from 50 to 40% due to the increased value of our BEST crypto holding during the week. We currently run 20% cash available for more metal or crypto if that market corrects further over the next 6 to 12 months.
We cannot exclude that Silver will suffer another blow into the high 21 handle, but we remain positive because the entire consolidation since August 2020 looks more like a correction of the new primary trend that started in March 2020. Our extended Precious metals holding is largely driven by fear of serious turmoil on the world (financial) stage. At some point in time. And if we get it completely wrong our metals will buy the same value goods it has always done.
The stagflation scenario is our preferred expected model to develop with an uneven wealth distribution. Thus our portfolio carries relatively little risk and designed to protect, not expand dramatically. A lean into regulated Crypto is acknowledging the importance of knowledge using ever increasing use demographics data and the quantum leap decentralized finance is making whilst battracting huge numbers of wholesale and retail participants.
Qauterly risk on Silver is currently in what looks like an intermediate downtrend that resembles more the period 2000-2010. So, we may be just at the very beginning of a trend that ultimately leads prices much higher. It is a waiting game now. No Change.
GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous update in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)|
|20 (17)||86 (81)||60 (89)|
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
Gold Silver ratio analysis
27 August 2021 close: Shorter term timescales are clearly more favourable looking for Silver to resume its long term gold equilibrium adjustment. MOnthly and Quarterly however still have a potentially broader weight to carry the Gold/Silver ratio further towards the 80 handle.
This reading does not call for a short term weight shift in the balanced precious metals portfolio. No Change.
13 August 2021 close: How does Silver perform versus Gold? As we reached the 75 handle on the Gold Silver ratio we have entered and price level that should end the rally withing 5 to 10% of current levels, maybe less. Hence our slight increased allocation to silver this week as Silver traded up from the Monday lows at $23.35. This is part of the Long term hold and now balances our entire metals position at 1/3rd each between Gold, Silver and Platinum. Short and Medium Gold Silver ratio looks reasonably overbought with potential bearish divergence confirmation on the short term horizon. But the uptrend may not be over yet. which means we have do not have a preferred leading metal in the portfolio right now and expect a fairly balanced value over the next few weeks or months. Quarterly Gold/ Silver ratio risk is trending up, but we should expect risk weight to bottom at a much lower level than 10 if we get to see a more serious low price level towards historic equilibrium which is south of 50. No Change.