Silver USdollar and Gold/Silver ratio risk position 30 July
Silver Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.
SILVER FORECAST(Previous upodate in brackets)
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)|
|% Risk Weight||76 (77)||22 (40)||38 (45)|
|PM Distribution Total allocation 50% (35%)||Pt:35%||Ag:30%||Au:35%|
30 July 2021 close: The June/July consolidation between 25.50 and 26.50 was accompanied by many influencer comments favouring silver, however the market decided to take a small dive into the mid 24 handle before recovering nearly a full dollar at the end of July. The silver chart favours the analysis of a one year consolidation wuthin that large 25% price range of $22.00-30.00. Silver volatility remains high as always during these corrections. If our straight chart analysis is correct silver will break out on the upside working towards an intermediary top in 2022. No change to the allocation which is slightly underweight from Gold and Platinum. Quarterly risk weight still favours a finish at a higher risk level.
16 July 2021 close: Weak performance at the end of the past week is disappointing but not unexpected. It has been part of the metals story for 10 years. We need yet to witness a strong market with weakening momentum to even start thinking about a change of the long term trend that started in March 2020. On the quarterly chart we should generally expect to see a higher risk weight level before a possible early turn signal. No Change.
GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous update in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|13 (13)||80 (65)||65 (89)|
Total allocation 50% (35%)
Gold Silver ratio analysis
30 July 2021 close: The Gold/Silver cross is still seeking direction although weight of the position is in favour of silver regaining some upward momentum as weekly risk is in bearish divergence position versus monthly. Quarterly risk weight is now in an uptrend but doesn't look particularly strong. Reason to not doubt our confidence in the balanced metals allocation for a portfolio total of about 50%.
16 July 2021 close: This week's close put the price in middle of a one year range. The long term outlook remains in favor of silver but the trigger to increase the silver allocation hasnt come yet. No Change.
30 July 2021 close: The above chart is last week's update for the Daily Platinum/Silver ratio chart where risk weight has now further dropped to 35% at July's close. This brings Platinum back into much lower risk and we could be witnessing a near term Platinum bottom. No Change to our roughly 1/3rd allocation.
16 July 2021 close: Shallow price movement with a sharpish risk weight move rarely offers strong indication like in this case. It means that Platinum or Silver may suffer a bit more in coming days. No reason for any allocation adjustment.
30 July 2021 close: Weekly PT/AG ratio dropped a few more points also leading towards a likely PT bottom again. The braoder weekly trend now appears to be up since that 40 handle bottom mid June.
16 July 2021 close: The weekly timescale print at this week's close leans towards a higher Platinum/Silver ratio, although the current consolidation may require a bullish divergence developing with a lower intermediate platinum/silver weekly close. This may be a few weeks out.
30 July 2021 close: Still expect risk weight to be driven into much higher ground between 75 and 90%, now at 62%. If the ratio holds as expected at this level, August Monthly risk and price will likely show an upturn again.
16 July 2021 close: The interim monthly reading cannot be used for allocation analysis during a relative period of price consolidation. This monthly timescale being in interim risk weight downtrend may slightly favor silver but no reason to change allocation.
16 July 2021 close: Way too early to make any calls based on quarterly data. Platinum uptrend still in play since the 2020 ratio bottom.
16 July 2021 close: As we just started this quarter we maintain that strong bullish divergence 2 quarters closing price ago is the dominant reading. It is way too early to trust this interim downtrend as a primary signal as the move in the Platinum/Silver ratio thusfar has been too limited.