S&P is high risk but the party isn't over until it is! | 4 December


S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3692 (3640)
Trend ↑ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
91 (87) 86 (75) 92 (78)
Allocation Limit(30%) Invested 0% (0%)


4 December: The party isn't over until it is. And it all depends on a few stocks that attract all the attention. The FANG+ group and a few stocks with dazzling PE's. As long as broad bearish divergence keeps appearing within all time frames this index and most other indices around the globe cannot be part of a responsible low risk investment portfolio. We are already achieving that with a long term precious metals portfolio achieving a very acceptable performance. In addition we have embraced crypto in a sense that technical knowhow is expanding rapidly bringing many sup[ewrb solution for digital banking and investing. Hence our choice to promote and participate in what could prove to be one of the most interesting Fintech concepts in Europe. Bitpanda's Eco System Token: BEST.

27 November: Whilst the week produced another burst of Helium in the near unlimited size balloon, Tesla just continued towards $600 ending on a PE ratio of 1160. Makes sense right? S&P, across technical tools, is still showing extremely high risk in the Medium and Long term time frames. Not participating simply protects from that risk whilst removing all opportunity (read greed). It is the common belief amongst even conservative equity traders and investors that Modern Monetary Theory may be the answer to all traditional monetary evil after all. Sidelines is still the call even though new highs are again in play. 3650 appears a hurdle level, but nothing can surprise anymore in this bigger than ever divide between lower/middle and upper class


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
49.08 (48.17)
Trend ↑ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
50 (47) 83 (67) 86 (92)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 0% (0%)


4 December: Oil has always been been a highly speculative market where huge sums of money change hands, sometimes without regular economic substance. It is also a changing market as to its use and with pressure of climate change. Technically there is no real support to allocate funds so we stay away from it, having been partly burned from very mixed signals earlier this year and poor risk managment in hindsight.

27 November: Vaccin optimism continued to drive oil price higher peaking midweek and slowing into Thanksgiving. This market does not look terribly strong even though the recent move is substantial. It lacks technical support with Weekly risk weight looking to develop bearish divergence and Monthly in very neutral ground without strong directional support, i.e no strong uptrend visible in any technical tool. This is a suspect market with only shortb term circumstantial fundamental reasoning. No Change.

20 November: Oil was strong this past week as a result of serious hope for revival following the vaccin phase 3 Trial results. This market is not set up for longer term investment allocation and should only be traded very short term with small speculative bias and with minimum leverage. No allocation in our portfolio. No change


BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
19100 (18045)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
95 (87) 91 (91) 78 (50)
Allocation Limit(0%) Invested 0% (0%)


4 December: We did see a new daily high in Bitcoin last week and the week ended with bearish divergence. Whether this will immediately materialize into serious weakness is a tough call, because the crypto community is hard pressed to follow major influencers in this space. Of course these influencers have to be right as it have them complete financial independence. However some of these people also can make very wrong predictions on other subjects or markets. BTC is a slow product and therefore cannot be used as a means of widespread money exchange between users. Being high risk technically, just like S&P, and knowingly manipulated by 'whales' we cannot allocate funds for longer term participation. Besides we believe in having that gap filled at 2800. This will happen once the digital alternative has finally been adopted by international monetary authorities, At that point there will be other more interesting alternatives to Bitcoin backed by real economic prospects. At the present level of near 20,000 there are already other assets that have the potential to perform as well as BTC has done since 2016. No Change.

29 November: BTC dropped 20% from the high in volitile midweek trading now experiencing a weekend rally. Technically the short term looks a little bullish, but the continued overbought condition of Medium and Long term risk weight makes an allocation irresponsible, especially since we still do not understand the narrative that Bitcoin as is good as gold. A new daily high during the coming week is likely to develop bearish divergence inside the daily time frame. This could trigger a very rapid decline unless this asset simply continues just like Tesla. Technically we continue our belief that the chance of filling the breakaway gap at 2800 is still realistic. The battle between the fiat currency monopolists and the crypto token crowd is yet to begin and we could become witnesses to a very interesting money war.


Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda - BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.1100 (0.1000)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
85 (78) 90 (90) 70 (55)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


Bitpanda BEST token

5 December: Bitpanda Eco System Token BEST performed very well last week closing in on the highs of a week ealier triggered by a breakout at 0,0950 that caused a quick 20% rally before settling around the breakout level just below €0,10. Today we have broken €0,11 (UP 10%) again and this Token looks increasingly promising as a future value proposition for every account holder. It has a real purpose and already offers a real attractive yield for Bitpanda account holders that are mildly active on the exchange. Besides, BEST tokens used to pay the discounted commissions are burnt creating more value for the remaining tokens in the process. The number of account holders has increased by 40% from 1 million about 18 months ago to an estimated 1.4 million recently. The arbitrage value of BEST is close to 12 eurocents but it could easily triple and still offer the same benefits for Bitpanda account holders. In relation to Bitcoin, which if course is also the most traded crypto on the Bitpanda exchange, BEST would be a or even THE perfect alternative to serve as an asset based Altcoin. We have adopted this interesting development and advised clients and friends to take a serious look for allocation of unused liquidity. Given its young age and relatively low liquidity (compared with BTC or Ether or Litecoin to name a few) this asset cannot be properly predicted from available technical tools. In 2021 this will become easier when 2 years on monthly data can better support a fuller picture of short to long time frames relative to each other and to themselves.

29 November: A very interesting development during the past week that already started the previous two weeks from the 0,0825 level. Last week BEST broke its previous 0,0950 high and started the week with a continued solid move towards 0,1000. A break of 10 euro cents quickly drove this token up another 15% to a high of 0,1150 before closing the normal trading week at 0,0995 and now moving around that 10 €cents level during the slower weekend. The equally sharp correction from that 11.5 cents top has now created space for further short term rallies whilst Monthly is showing the potential for developing a real market high somewhere during the next 6 months. As this extra-ordinary asset with real potential is still in its infancy, the information from longer term technical tools cannot provide the same diagnosis as with highly liquid mature assets. We believe BEST tokens have similar potential as some of the best performing assets in and outside the crypto space and it offers serious real benefits for owners trading any asset on the Bitpanda exchange. One of the fundamental reasons for this potential success is Bitpanda's Pantos project supported by the 2018 PAN ico token now trading at $0,045. The PANTOS project could easily become the leading blockchain development of the 2020's putting Austria and Bitpanda on an exclusive path to dominance in a fully regulated world of 'New investing' and 'New banking'. If that dominance materializes BEST could even shown stronger price moves than Bitcoin. Long term hold.

22 November: BEST tokens have performed strongly during the week (up 5%), possibly and likely helped by the advance in crypto currencies, BTC in particular. BEST at this moment on Nov 22 is making a new season high above 0,0950 which makes as much sense, more sense in our opinion, as Bitcoin. BEST represents a perpetual real value benefit for anyone trading an asset on the Bitpanda exchange. We particularly like the introduction of physical precious metals on the Bitpanda echange. All current and future Bitpanda account holders will benefit for owning BEST as it not only still trades below its intrinsic value, but offers real discount on trading commissions if paid with BEST as well as an actual yield in the process. This is quite a unique phenonemon even in today's Fintech environment. It will not prevent the BEST token from trading well above its intrinsic value just like Bitcoin, any other crypto currency or equities like TSLA. Arguably BEST offers the same if not a better opportunity to increase anywhere between 3 and 50-fold. Or even become the 'go to' safehaven. Whatever the market wants to believe and offers a high enough level of trust becomes of microscopic interest.

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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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