Standard & Poor 500	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
3471 (3483)
Trend	↑ (↑)	↑ (↑)	↓ (↑)
% Risk Weight	92 (92)	66 (60)	76 (92)
Allocation Limit(30%)	Invested	0% (0%)

16 October: The Fed determines stock prices; until the party is over. And there won’t be a free lunch, even for crony participants. Stocks around the globe either stagnate since long, or are driven by the 20 or so major tech companies around the globe. The S&P and most other stock indices are making very visual what is meant by divergence. With US elections coming up in what is already a dirty trick environment one cannot possibly predict a short term price move unless you are part of a growing inner circle. We can only be served by the mechanics that analyze printed prices every hour, every day, every week every month and every year. As risk manager we cannot participate in what is likely to become the largest equity related graveyard ever since stocks were first traded in Amsterdam in 1602. Whether Covid plays a role in expediting the implicit outcome isn’t really that important. The Debt till we Die policy responsible for fake wealth creation will prove to be a historic high risk gamble that cannot but fail, even though the road to this failure is long enough to make people want to particpate. And this is where excess human greed will eventually be penalised. No change.

9 October: The first major peak (2870) was recorded in Jan 2018. Since then we have seen 3 subsequent lower bottoms and 3 subsequent higher tops, in that order, creating a major long term very bearish looking triangle. Most senior analysts do not understand how this situation can be sustained under these unprecedented and fabricated world economic conditions, and neither do I. This is risk applied by a much younger and agressive ultra capitalist generation. Nothing wrong with that as there always was some balance between opportunists and regulators. The bearish technical picture needs a driver to change risk perspective of the young wealthy opportunist, which could easily be Covid related. The medium and long term market risk remains extremely high and to be avoided for the average index investor.

Brent	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
42.78 (42.82)
Trend	↓ (↓)	↑ (↓)	↑ (↑)
% Risk Weight	49 (49)	35 (43)	88 (78)
Allocation Limit(10%)	Invested	0% (0%)

16 October: Oil prices on the daily chart appear to develop a correcting pattern from the downtrend that started. Weekly risk weight however continued to move lower without much price change. These conflicting patters make a medium term prediction rather hard thus are we looking at the Long term which continues to show a weaker pattern. There is an oil war going on whilst the world economy is showing all the signs of further contraction in 2021 and possibly beyond only to be saved by helicopter money. No Change.

9 October: Last week’s 5% price revival of the Oil space is still not convinving and we cannot see any low risk investment opportunity. A break of the August high at 46.50 may in fact create bearish divergence in the Daily time frame. No Change.

BITCOIN BTC/USD	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
11348 (11336)
Trend	↑ (↑)	↑ (↑)	↓ (↑)
% Risk Weight	80 (80)	58 (55)	75 (85)
Allocation Limit(0%)	Invested	0% (0%)

16 October: The crypto world enjoys participation from some of the brighest young brains in the fintech industry. Yet this is likely to also be their pitfall. The crypto currency market in its present form is completely misunderstood by normal people like politicians and therefore needs a much longer lead to become an acceptable playing field. Political Leaders in the driving seat cannot accept being overruled by this gambling circus beyond comprehension. Blockchain clearly is a revolutionary developm ent that deserves serious attention, but total speculative pricing is simply to disturbing for comfort. To early for serious integration into our daily lives. In our opinion this is clearly the case with Bitcoin. BTC probably has paved the way for a better, easier and faster alternative that hasn’t been born yet. No Change.

9 October: Bitcoin has no future except as safehaven in a more controlled and less speculative market environment. It can only reach stratosphere levels in a super hyperinflation world economy, AFTER we have seen the gap filled at 2800 or there abouts. No Change.
See the little experience and situation we recently had and which had a big impact on supporting the above conclusion.

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
0.0802 (0.0806)
Trend	↑ (↑)	↑ (↑)	↑ (↑)
% Risk Weight	73 (74)	68 (57)	70 (87)
Allocation Limit(10%)	Invested	100% (100%)

16 October: A European crypto exchange that issues a token that pays monthly volume return and offers a commission rebate represents real value and has the potential to become a strong alternative crypto currency to fiat money in the bank. Bitpanda’s BEST token is technically ready to become a universal link for all current crypto assets and future crypto assets backed any type of hard asset or by real businesses with real life products. BEST has been trading just above the E0.08 most of the week seeking fresh interest. Volumes remain very low. Risk weight in all times frames are weak uptrends. A relatively small market that will take time to mature. No Change.

9 October: This 14 months old young representive of the digital asset space is holding its own and could soon find wider support as the Bitpanda exchange is expanding towards a mature and more diversified asset platform with solid regulatory European support. Strong Hold. No Change.