S&P-Oil-Crypto | S&P long speculation at these levels takes nerves | 9 October, 2020

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3483 (3364)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
92 (88) 60 (58) 92 (62)
Allocation Limit(30%) Invested 0% (0%)

9 October: The first major peak (2870) was recorded in Jan 2018. Since then we have seen 3 subsequent lower bottoms and 3 subsequent higher tops, in that order, creating a major long term very bearish looking triangle. Most senior analysts do not understand how this situation can be sustained under these unprecedented and fabricated world economic conditions, and neither do I. This is risk applied by a much younger and agressive ultra capitalist generation. Nothing wrong with that as there always was some balance between opportunists and regulators. The bearish technical picture needs a driver to change risk perspective of the young wealthy opportunist, which could easily be Covid related. The medium and long term market risk remains extremely high and to be avoided for the average index investor.

30 September: Very little change in the technical risk picture at a midweek month and quarter end. Daily risk moved higher filling some bullish divergence gap vs Weekly and Monthly as recorded on 18 Sep. This market unfortunately looks very very high risk, only to be mitigated by hyperinflation, although technical pictures should include all market scenario’s irrespective, hence very very high risk in current and future dollars.

Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
42.82 (41.00)
Trend ↓ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
49 (49) 43 (41) 78 (46)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 0% (0%)

9 October: Last week’s 5% price revival of the Oil space is still not convinving and we cannot see any low risk investment opportunity. A break of the August high at 46.50 may in fact create bearish divergence in the Daily time frame. No Change.

30 September: Brent still looks for direction and looks technically heavy. Monthly risk at the start of the new month appears to go neutral from up which can quickly turn negative. Weekly risk is less negative but inconclusive. A flattish but clear bearish divergence happened at the end of August with a 46.50 price high. Risk weight is for lower prices. No change.

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

11336 (10600)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
80 (78) 55 (51) 85 (58)
Allocation Limit(0%) Invested 0% (0%)

9 October: Bitcoin has no future except as safehaven in a more controlled and less speculative market environment. It can only reach stratosphere levels in a super hyperinflation world economy, AFTER we have seen the gap filled at 2800 or there abouts. No Change.
See the little experience and situation we recently had and which had a big impact on supporting the above conclusion.

1 October: The October 1 hourly print shows a rapid drop since late morning New York. We stay with a conviction that 99.5% of gap openings will be filled, hence the expectation for a strong drop towards 2800 at least. BTC only knows friends where enemies simply do not participate. This makes Bitcoin hard to predict in any short or medium term time frame. No Change.

Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0806 (0.0798)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
74 (73) 57 (36) 87 (83)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7

9 October: This 14 months old young representive of the digital asset space is holding its own and could soon find wider support as the Bitpanda exchange is expanding towards a mature and more diversified asset platform with solid regulatory European support. Strong Hold. No Change.

1 October: BEST has turned up in all time frames which also look unfinished. No technical top is currently in the making. Positive outlook.

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