S&P-Oil-Crypto | Is market pressure ‘election’ or ‘Covid’ fear? | 31 October

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3281 (3460)
Trend ↓ (↑) ↓ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
89 (91) 60 (70) 10 (55)
Allocation Limit(30%) Invested 0% (0%)


31 October: The S&P500 finished October with risk weight turning down. At a price level in the Febr 2020 peaking range and with risk weight in bearish divergence. Will the market finally break? The technical are clear which is why portfolio risk does not support holding an equity index. Of course Covid is developing ever more negative economic consequences, whatever the reporting shows. The positive numbers are all calculated from a much lower growth level and are therefore not very meaningful as fundamental supporting indicators. S&P and most other world indices look rather feverish and still need to break in order to successfully fight this systemic ‘whatever it takes’ disease. No Change.

23 October: No change in value with all risk weight frames in uptrend, a US presidential election in 10 days and a virtually broken monetary system. It must be a tough call for anyone being bread to participate in equity markets and have only known to be long and make a ton of money. Gold by the way has outpaced S&P during this century, whilst in Q4 2020 Gold is in a clear uptrend and S&P is in high risk territory. We prefer to avoid that risk, which isn’t to say that some stocks are killer equities like Amazon. That’ll probably double again unless the world economy gets hit hard enough leaving average households on budget alert. If S&P turns lower from these levels it will push Long term risk weight in reverse which signals Medium and Longh term risk for another major push town. No Change.


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
37.85 (41.64)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
48 (49) 36 (42) 12 (58)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 0% (0%)


31 October: Brent Crude dropped more than we anticipated even with the bearish conclusion although the economic pressure fully justifies this price picture. This is not a market to challenge because we could return to similar levels we saw back in April. Only very strong inflation can turn this around, but then it would be less risky to own precious metals for portfolio protection. Daily risk at 12 could pause the downturn during the next 2 weeks, but the picture is not good and we will stay away from Oil. No Change.

23 October: Oil shows a rather inconclusive technical picture. In Daily time frame we notice a flat to lower developing risk without much price change. This means no clear short term direction objective. Weekly time frame risk is turning up from a lower risk level which potentially calls for higher prices. Monthly risk weight is turning down which can prove the dominant force. Hence very unclear and in an uncertain world economic environment oil investment should be avoided at this moment. No Change.

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
13800 (12919)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
88 (82) 80 (71) 88 (88)
Allocation Limit(0%) Invested 0% (0%)


31 October: Bitcoin Dropped to 12,800 on Monday Oct 26, rallied to 13,800 on Tueasday, dropped to 12,900 on Wednesday, Bounced up and down then rallied to 14,000 on Saturday Oct 31. And now trades near those recent highs with Risk weight in all times frames at a high enough level to become extremely careful. The Bitcoin consultancy space is very bullish which adds to the need of high alert. We simply cannot see a fresh strong bullish market developing. Not with Weekly risk likely moving into bearish divergence. Long term resistance is singalled by the channel with the upper level now at 15,800. We do not take this Alternative Media talk about large institutional interest developing as threatening, only because one wealthy entrepreneur has put most of his company (MicroStrategy Inc) free assets into Bitcoin. This $425M investment, which appears to have been accumulated somewhere between 11,000 and 12,000 simply cannot be a smart move considering the present universal high risk monetary pressures. We might be wrong of course and chapeau for the conviction to assume this massive risk position. It sounds as if all wealthy stakeholders with much reserves are talking each other into heaven whilst realizing that small investors that usually only come in at much higher levels have very little to no reserves and could be destroyed big time by margin calls or worse. We still favor the $2,800 and below level before new highs.

b>25 October: This 12919 close BTC price was taken on 25/10 at midday. After reaching 13,350 on early Sunday morning on surprisingly high volume for an overnight weekend hour, Bitcoin has dropped a mere 4% from that high. This just shows how crazy and also immature this market really is. 100% speculative in terms of trading activity and suspect of massive manipulation by the biggest stakeholders. Technically BTC could rally into channel resistance at 15,000, but we still favor that the gap at 2800 will be filled before this market ever has a chance of maturing into the Institutional space. The chance of a serious gap opening being filled is close to 100%, even if long after the event. Some influencer analysts are saying the institutional market will start taking serious interest in crypto and Bitcoin in particular, but that to us seems like a strange development as that should have happened already 6 years ago at least and initiated/managed by people with high risk awareness and good understanding of international asset investing. Doesn’t mean crazy markets cannot be highly profitable and crypto has been massivly profitable for a few influencers in finance. Then again, If enough people believe BTC goes to 100k or 1M, it may well happen, not considering other serious consequences of such market moves. Crypto in general however remains a highly interesting development and will surely mature and expand into a broadly acccepted investment class. No Change.


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0850 (0.0834)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
77 (75) 82 (81) 65 (96)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


1 November: BEST reached a high of 0,0890 this week and start the new month with a push down from a very overbought short term risk level in Daily and Hourly time frames. Daily risk is already down to at 65 and is likely to diverge with Weekly if this short term trend continues for a few more days. We expect this young asset to develop bullish divergence in the Weekly time frame before an intermediate top will be set. The allocation we have adopted is our conviction that digital and crypto assets will grow substantially in a fully regulated environment, This will probably include Bitcoin as well although that pioneering asset class is unlikely to stay as a primary crypto force in terms of size. In our opinion. No Change.

25 October: BEST tokens represent what Bitpanda stands for. A secure exchange for anything crypto considered acceptable plus traditional precious metals trading. Bitpanda stores all crypto reserves off line which removes the need for cold wallet storage and this is what investors need to operate with minimum hassle and maximum safety. Yes there are a few extra login safeguards, but you cannot lose your assets. BEST had a fairly good week improving 4% to 0.0834 as of writing with all risk frames approaching high risk levels. As the long term risk tools have continued to move upward we are still seeking maturity of this young multi purpose asset where the first medium term divergence still needs to materialize. It currently looks like that first risk to price divergence could be bearish and many months away still. We remain very positive also, or maybe especially, in a market post monetary reset. No Change.


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