S&P-Oil-Crypto | Q3 update | 30 September, 2020

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3364 (3329)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
88 (88) 58 (72) 62 (24)
Allocation Limit(30%) Invested 0% (0%)

30 September: Very little change in the technical risk picture at a midweek month and quarter end. Daily risk moved higher filling some bullish divergence gap vs Weekly and Monthly as recorded on 18 Sep. This market unfortunately looks very very high risk, only to be mitigated by hyperinflation, although technical pictures should include all market scenario’s irrespective, hence very very high risk in current and future dollars.

18 September: Little price change in the S&P index at the close of business Friday compared to the previous week. A downturn in the risk trend in 10 days time for the Monthly time frame confirms a strong bearish divergence trend change. Stronger than Oct 2018 and much stronger than March this year. This most widely followed index for global equity trends continues to show high risky. Hence No Change.

Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
41.00 (42.98)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
49 (49) 41 (55) 46 (43)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 0% (0%)

30 September: Brent still looks for direction and looks technically heavy. Monthly risk at the start of the new month appears to go neutral from up which can quickly turn negative. Weekly risk is less negative but inconclusive. A flattish but clear bearish divergence happened at the end of August with a 46.50 price high. Risk weight is for lower prices. No change.

18 September: Some volatility again with market prices climbing steadly during the week. Whilst short term hourly and Daily appear to eye a little stronger still, the Medium and Long term picture is highly suspect without subtlety for analysing these politically motivated short term trends. Highly speculative. No Change

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

10600 (10845)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
78 (75) 51 (50) 58 (85)
Allocation Limit(0%) Invested 0% (0%)

1 October: The October 1 hourly print shows a rapid drop since late morning New York. We stay with a conviction that 99.5% of gap openings will be filled, hence the expectation for a strong drop towards 2800 at least. BTC only knows friends where enemies simply do not participate. This makes Bitcoin hard to predict in any short or medium term time frame. No Change.

18 September: Daily has gone from near oversold to near overbought and turning down with much changein longer term risk weight trends. BTC can rally wildly into the $16k level on positive sentiment due to the many Bitcoin bugs telling interesting stories on social media. Bitcoin remains high risk until it finds global monetary support from the fiat monopoly players. As that isn’t the case (yet) we will look for our objective to see the gap filled at 2800 at least.

Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0798 (0.0773)
Trend ↑ (↓) ↑ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
73 (72) 36 (28) 83 (64)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7

1 October: BEST has turned up in all time frames which also look unfinished. No technical top is currently in the making. Positive outlook.

18 September: BEST looks a little tired follwing a daily risk advance into higher risk territory after a rally from the lower intraweek level of 0.0750. Monthly risk weight is still high but not yet mature enough to be reliable. Weekly however does show divergence vs Monthly which should keep a floor under the price. No Change.

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