S&P-Oil-Crypto | Some asset classes are becoming irrational! | 13 November close

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3586 (3512)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
87 (87) 58 (58) 75 (76)
Allocation Limit(30%) Invested 0% (0%)


13 November: The rationale for these strong markets is led by continued huge monetary support that is taking some of these major markets into hyperinflationary territory. Risk remains extremely high which is recognized by many if not most professional investors. Who exactly are leading the dance is hard to determine outside the inner circle, but it looks like the public including some institutional investors are driving the stock market to these extremes. Last weeks jump as a result of a ‘Democratic’ victory and a possioble vaccin coming early next year is really too simple for even the strongest fundamental analyst. We stay out of this market without feeling broken due to not meeting a speculative opportunity, but the technicals do not support that risk action.

06 November: The number of parameters affecting changes in the geo-politcal landscape cannot possibly be translated into a strong fundamental S&P consensus, whilst the technical picture holds all the eggs irrespective. At this moment we cannot but be very vigilent regarding all asset classes. As the new months closed its first week, S&P Monthly risk weight is still marginally down at an overbought level showing bearish divergence. This simply is a high risk picture that cannot be ignored. Stocks continued to shows strength as BIDEN closed in at the end of the week. A completely fresh momentum may develop into the new week which we will follow from a distance. High risk, no change.


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
42.69 (39.65)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
46 (45) 33 (32) 80 (59)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 0% (0%)


13 November: The euphoria as a result of preceived positive economic news is understandable. This has filtered through to many markets including Oil, but nothing is certain and the strength last week is very short term emotion against long term uncertainty. We stay on the sidelines especially where stronger economic data is coming from a much lower base now and the real recovery still needs to be proven.

06 November: Brent Crude rallied from an oversold short term risk position following a strong drop the week before. The new month starts again with a continued downtrend in long term risk. Weekly also down at neutral level with Daily risk having rallied more substantially towards the 60 level. Crude therefore still shows higher risk of continuing the slower downtrend that started back in August. No Change.

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
16000 (15300)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
88 (88) 91 (88) 91 (80)
Allocation Limit(0%) Invested 0% (0%)


14 November: As we follow the hype it is very clear that all of this advance is driven by the alternative media influencers. The reasoning for an alternative uninterventional asset makes perfect sense, but the manner and speed of price discovery does not. We certainly hope that everyone participating in this crazyness will profit and be properly protected at the end of this amazing crypto journey. Technically all time frames are still up in tue overbought ranges and it looks like short term this move is coming to an end, but it can also mean short term bullish divergence in the making again in a few weeks time. We hold on to our long term target of 2800 which we held ever since the market rallied to its 2017 peak. No change.

08 November: We’ve comfortably reached the 15k level that we recognized as a potential intermediate high much quicker, which probably was triggered by the very bullish narrative in the alternative digital media only crypto space. And this is where everybody, including ourselves, follows short term developments. It is not surprising that speculation goes very much in the direction we have witnessed of late. Up, up and up. We still however cannot come to the same monetary strategy conclusions whether by lack of knowledge of otherwise, whilst the technical picture remains as is. Monthly risk still sits at a high risk 88, but in an uptrend. Weekly risk has advanced to the high 80’s with daily turning down this Sunday at 80. RSI and MACD look vulnerable and we are aware that market can continue in the same direction for a very long time. BTC is great for longs and remains very very speculative. We are 100% convinced that Bitcoin is fully controlled by the biggest stakeholders in this young asset class which makes the case for more conservative wealth preservation and opportunity investment very tricky. We stay out because we still strongly lean towards filling that gap at 280o first. If that ever happens the downside risk could be a lot bigger than ‘just 2800’. No Change.


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0913 (0.0893)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
80 (79) 88 (83) 85 (70)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


14 November: The price of the BEST token is approaching the 0,0950 high reached back in April eating away a 6 month erosion by a few percentage points every week. BEST represents the importance of alternative low cost banking and trading in an increasing number of asset classes with transparent access for retail investors. Even though this very young asset is looking to get short term overbought, our long term hold stands firm as we follow the demise of traditional banking and commission driven analysts with interest.

08 November: BEST crept back up to the .09 handle and is now holding at recent higher price levels. The Token also appears to benefit from a strong crypto coin market. Technically this token is till too young to predict a Longer term risk trend as a typical 14 month period cannot yet be calculated. That will take until January 2021. In the meantime we see uptrends in all time frames which is likely to begin signalling the potentail development of bullish divergence in the medium term on any short term correction. A pause at some point for a few weeks where Daily risk gets into a low risk divergence position versus Weekly. The reason for investment however is that BEST tokens represent a potentially unique development in the regulated crypto space in Europe that could earn a significant position in a world of alternative to zero of negative interest bank deposit savings whilst Central monetary monopolies are actively in search a moment to introduce a digital currency alternative. A fundamental hold.


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