S&P-Oil-Crypto | Stocks are simply very high risk | 4 September, 2020

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3419 (3507)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
90 (83) 91 (95) 66 (96)
Allocation 0% (0%)


4 September: RSI, MACD and Stochastic all continue to show the potential or an already turning down of risk weight. This is just so bearish that no sane person should risk any sizeable portfolio allocation to this market. Yet a few long term stock market bears are turning bullish. This is a sign for contrarians to be especially concerned that ‘even this maket’ will end its run one day. Turning bullish at this elevated levels makes us remember the bankers that finally turned bullish on the USDollar exchange rate back in 1985. We’ve never seen those levels again, ever against the other majors. Technically the S&P is violating technical rules if wisdom, hence a confirmation of the total manipulation eventually leading to massive losses for the Robin Hood type traders resulting in hardship whilst the economy hasnt even begun to recover in earnest and may not do so for several years. No Change,

28 August: The S&P closed just above the top of the expanding triangle which generally is a bear signal position. With Fed continuing to print and seeking or allowing higher inflation the ‘unlimited’ scenario is becoming highly dangerous. With long term and medium term bearish divergence close to getting confirmed we can but be negative on this index. During the major corrections we felt good and during the bubble directions, as now, we are happy not to be exposed at these unrealistic levels. It doesnt mean the equity space can’t go higher, but we prefer to protect assets with hard metals until the monetary pandemic resets itself. Staying out is our potective Mask against the Long equity virus.


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
42.31 (45.94)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
49 (45) 83 (91) 28 (33)
Allocation 0% (0%)


4 September: We did roll over into a fresh short term bear market and it now remains to be seen whethewr it will last into medium term or longer. The medium term onlyu shows mild bearish risk tom price divergence on the Stochastic tool with RSI turning down and MACD converging to turndown as well. This is higher risk visual that demands caution. We stay out.

28 August: If this market goes much higher it means something is about to hit us as the picture is technically building a top that could so easily roll over into a fresh bear market. A strong oil market goes hand in hand with strong oil demand, which can easily be met from rather high oil reserves around the globe at this moment. The energy space remains highly uncertain under Covid pressure on world economies. We stay away from this risk asset.

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
10175 (11450)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
73 (65) 72 (84) 20 (23)
Allocation 0% (0%)


4 September: This market remains very much under the influence of younger to middle aged early investors who have made their fortunes with returns in the 1000’s of percent. Because anything can happen to this market under the weight of an near impossible G10 task of repairing the Debt burden before it’s too late, we keep it simple. As 99.9% of serious Gap openings are filled why wouldn’t BTC, given it has no real purpose other than its strong appeal to a number of mainly post 1980 born investors. Maybe they’re right and maybe not. and yes, BTC could go to $ One Million if the G10 fiat market implodes to Zimbabwan type scenario. The latter doens’t seem likely although Western and Eastern economies screwed up big time during the past two decades in particular. We stay Safe and Out.

28 August: BTC Weekly risk has turned down whilst Daily shows bullish divergence versus weekly just like last week except Daily risk has now turned up. We still believe that Bitcoin, with everything staying equal, should return to fill that 2800 gap up opening in August 2017. That gap became invisible on real time charts as providers adjusted daily on screen price ranges to the 24/7 trading facility. Yet that gap, was never really filled as experienced with highly liquid and professional markets during normal business trading hours. No Change.


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0757 (0.0820)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
72 (73) 30 (26) 26 (78)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


4 September: A bit unfortunate to see BEST truning back down under 8 Eurocents, but it doesn’t look bad at all. A new dive looks like a great technical and fundamental opportunity to acquire some tokens and receive a strong return on investment. Any trading will be rewarded with free tokens representing a real interest rate. Plus any commissions, if paid with BEST tokens are charged at 12 Eurocents, making the commission level paid on crypto currencies and precious metals quite attractive with commission discounts of up to 50%. BEST is now also traded on Hong Kong’s HitBTC exchange. This makes it a potentially more speculative instrument which could increase BEST volatility. No Change for now based on favourable technical indicators and risk weight waiting to fund a short term bottom.

28 August: BEST is trading 3.7% stronger this weekend and start to show a financially and technically deserved higher interest. The Medium term risk weight showing a stronger uptrend comforts this fundamental interest in a future with many more digital tokens representing different types of financial assets. Regulated Fintech exchanges will be part of a future and will also become our future retail bankers without borders. No Change.


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