S&P-Oil-Crypto | Stocks demand more caution | 18 September, 2020

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3329 (3335)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
88 (88) 72 (83) 24 (21)
Allocation Limit(30%) Invested 0% (0%)

18 September: Little price change in the S&P index at the close of business Friday compared to the previous week. A downturn in the risk trend in 10 days time for the Monthly time frame confirms a strong bearish divergence trend change. Stronger than Oct 2018 and much stronger than March this year. This most widely followed index for global equity trends continues to show high risky. Hence No Change.

11 September: Bullish Divergence between Daily and Longer term risk weight frames typically drives the highly opportunistic BTFD strategy. However, with Medium term Weekly and Long term Monthly risk weight showing multiple times bearish divergence in their own time frames and visible in all our technical tools, this market remains high risk and caution (= out or small no leverage) must be the correct approach to preserve. If it weren’t such a tricky environment there wouldn’t be so many opposite views, so much discussion on (a)social media and even a complete change of mind by some commentators. Hence no participation based on strict risk management rules as even the best fundamental analysis only works if you get your timing right. So we’d rather be wrong and out than sorry. No Change.

Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
42.98 (39.42)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
49 (48) 55 (66) 43 (10)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 0% (0%)

18 September: Some volatility again with market prices climbing steadly during the week. Whilst short term hourly and Daily appear to eye a little stronger still, the Medium and Long term picture is highly suspect without subtlety for analysing these politically motivated short term trends. Highly speculative. No Change

11 September: We anticipated the gap down open early March to be filled and got out of our hold on a losing position. The technicals are fairly neutral at this point with a strong risk of further price erosion as Weekly is in a downtrend and Monthly risk weight narrowing for a possible downturn. High volatility with rapid price movement risk if such a down turn develops is best avoided. No Change.

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

10845 (10500)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
75 (75) 50 (62) 85 (26)
Allocation Limit(0%) Invested 0% (0%)

18 September: Daily has gone from near oversold to near overbought and turning down with much changein longer term risk weight trends. BTC can rally wildly into the $16k level on positive sentiment due to the many Bitcoin bugs telling interesting stories on social media. Bitcoin remains high risk until it finds global monetary support from the fiat monopoly players. As that isn’t the case (yet) we will look for our objective to see the gap filled at 2800 at least.

11 September: In September 2018 we pulled this chart of BTC CFD and marked the gap openings all of which but one were filled. As the chance of a gap fill, usually early and sometimes late, is near 100%, we pay high attention to the risk of that final gap at around 2880 from August 5, 2017 being filled at some point. See chart below:

The two other red circled gaps on this chart were both filled in November 2018 and the final remaining gap at 2880 has not yet filled. It may never be filled of course, which would be unusual. The sheer speculative price volatility of BTC however makes that risk greater and present highly suspicious financial market conditions should keep BTC investors on alert. This whole environment is one big hot kitchen that could inflame, then drowned before it settles as a new normal for digital fiat perhaps as many believe will be the case. Hence the BTC 1 million level is a joke with all things being equal as it would amplify an unacceptable wealth transfer leading to havoc. Unless of course Zimbabwian hyperinflation develops without a Bretton Woods type reset. In that case Gold might probably be worth 1 Billion/ounce. Very unlikely. No Change.

Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0773 (0.0773)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
72 (72) 28 (36) 64 (22)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7

18 September: BEST looks a little tired follwing a daily risk advance into higher risk territory after a rally from the lower intraweek level of 0.0750. Monthly risk weight is still high but not yet mature enough to be reliable. Weekly however does show divergence vs Monthly which should keep a floow under the price. No Change.

11 September: Bitpanda’s BEST is holding but hasn’t yet visibly found that stronger foundation. In the meantime BEST offers an actual return for anyone trading on the Bitpanda exchange, which in our case is only Precious metals, with the additional benefit of a discounted commission charged in BEST at a value of €0.12, so owning BEST at €0.08 offers a 30% commission discount besides the monthly BEST rewards based on volume trading. We stay with BEST with a limited risk allocation as there are very few alternatives in the crypto space that can fill the void between unregulated or much smaller regulated crypto exchanges and fiat currency. No Change.

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