S&P-Oil-Crypto | What happens following the BIDEN call? | 06 November close

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3512 (3281)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
87 (89) 58 (60) 76 (10)
Allocation Limit(30%) Invested 0% (0%)


06 November: The number of parameters affecting changes in the geo-politcal landscape cannot possibly be translated into a strong fundamental S&P consensus, whilst the technical picture holds all the eggs irrespective. At this moment we cannot but be very vigilent regarding all asset classes. As the new months closed its first week, S&P Monthly risk weight is still marginally down at an overbought level showing bearish divergence. This simply is a high risk picture that cannot be ignored. Stocks continued to shows strength as BIDEN closed in at the end of the week. A completely fresh momentum may develop into the new week which we will follow from a distance. High risk, no change.

31 October: The S&P500 finished October with risk weight turning down. At a price level in the Febr 2020 peaking range and with risk weight in bearish divergence. Will the market finally break? The technical are clear which is why portfolio risk does not support holding an equity index. Of course Covid is developing ever more negative economic consequences, whatever the reporting shows. The positive numbers are all calculated from a much lower growth level and are therefore not very meaningful as fundamental supporting indicators. S&P and most other world indices look rather feverish and still need to break in order to successfully fight this systemic ‘whatever it takes’ disease. No Change.


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
39.65 (37.85)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
45 (48) 32 (36) 59 (12)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 0% (0%)


06 November: Brent Crude rallied from an oversold short term risk position following a strong drop the week before. The new month starts again with a continued downtrend in long term risk. Weekly also down at neutral level with Daily risk having rallied more substantially towards the 60 level. Crude therefore still shows higher risk of continuing the slower downtrend that started back in August. No Change.

31 October: Brent Crude dropped more than we anticipated even with the bearish conclusion although the economic pressure fully justifies this price picture. This is not a market to challenge because we could return to similar levels we saw back in April. Only very strong inflation can turn this around, but then it would be less risky to own precious metals for portfolio protection. Daily risk at 12 could pause the downturn during the next 2 weeks, but the picture is not good and we will stay away from Oil. No Change.

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
15300 (13800)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
88 (88) 88 (80) 80 (88)
Allocation Limit(0%) Invested 0% (0%)


08 November: We’ve comfortably reached the 15k level that we recognized as a potential intermediate high much quicker, which probably was triggered by the very bullish narrative in the alternative digital media only crypto space. And this is where everybody, including ourselves, follows short term developments. It is not surprising that speculation goes very much in the direction we have witnessed of late. Up, up and up. We still however cannot come to the same monetary strategy conclusions whether by lack of knowledge of otherwise, whilst the technical picture remains as is. Monthly risk still sits at a high risk 88, but in an uptrend. Weekly risk has advanced to the high 80’s with daily turning down this Sunday at 80. RSI and MACD look vulnerable and we are aware that market can continue in the same direction for a very long time. BTC is great for longs and remains very very speculative. We are 100% convinced that Bitcoin is fully controlled by the biggest stakeholders in this young asset class which makes the case for more conservative wealth preservation and opportunity investment very tricky. We stay out because we still strongly lean towards filling that gap at 280o first. If that ever happens the downside risk could be a lot bigger than ‘just 2800’. No Change.

31 October: Bitcoin Dropped to 12,800 on Monday Oct 26, rallied to 13,800 on Tueasday, dropped to 12,900 on Wednesday, Bounced up and down then rallied to 14,000 on Saturday Oct 31. And now trades near those recent highs with Risk weight in all times frames at a high enough level to become extremely careful. The Bitcoin consultancy space is very bullish which adds to the need of high alert. We simply cannot see a fresh strong bullish market developing. Not with Weekly risk likely moving into bearish divergence. Long term resistance is singalled by the channel with the upper level now at 15,800. We do not take this Alternative Media talk about large institutional interest developing as threatening, only because one wealthy entrepreneur has put most of his company (MicroStrategy Inc) free assets into Bitcoin. This $425M investment, which appears to have been accumulated somewhere between 11,000 and 12,000 simply cannot be a smart move considering the present universal high risk monetary pressures. We might be wrong of course and chapeau for the conviction to assume this massive risk position. It sounds as if all wealthy stakeholders with much reserves are talking each other into heaven whilst realizing that small investors that usually only come in at much higher levels have very little to no reserves and could be destroyed big time by margin calls or worse. We still favor the $2,800 and below level before new highs.


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0893 (0.0850)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
79 (77) 83 (82) 70 (65)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


08 November: BEST crept back up to the .09 handle and is now holding at recent higher price levels. The Token also appears to benefit from a strong crypto coin market. Technically this token is till too young to predict a Longer term risk trend as a typical 14 month period cannot yet be calculated. That will take until January 2021. In the meantime we see uptrends in all time frames which is likely to begin signalling the potentail development of bullish divergence in the medium term on any short term correction. A pause at some point for a few weeks where Daily risk gets into a low risk divergence position versus Weekly. The reason for investment however is that BEST tokens represent a potentially unique development in the regulated crypto space in Europe that could earn a significant position in a world of alternative to zero of negative interest bank deposit savings whilst Central monetary monopolies are actively in search a moment to introduce a digital currency alternative. A fundamental hold.

1 November: BEST reached a high of 0,0890 this week and start the new month with a push down from a very overbought short term risk level in Daily and Hourly time frames. Daily risk is already down to at 65 and is likely to diverge with Weekly if this short term trend continues for a few more days. We expect this young asset to develop bullish divergence in the Weekly time frame before an intermediate top will be set. The allocation we have adopted is our conviction that digital and crypto assets will grow substantially in a fully regulated environment, This will probably include Bitcoin as well although that pioneering asset class is unlikely to stay as a primary crypto force in terms of size. In our opinion. No Change.


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