S&P-Oil-Crypto | Who knows what is next | 23 October

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3460 (3471)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
91 (92) 70 (66) 55 (76)
Allocation Limit(30%) Invested 0% (0%)


23 October: No change in value with all risk weight frames in uptrend, a US presidential election in 10 days and a virtually broken monetary system. It must be a tough call for anyone being bread to participate in equity markets and have only known to be long and make a ton of money. Gold by the way has outpaced S&P during this century, whilst in Q4 2020 Gold is in a clear uptrend and S&P is in high risk territory. We prefer to avoid that risk, which isn’t to say that some stocks are killer equities like Amazon. That’ll probably double again unless the world economy gets hit hard enough leaving average households on budget alert. If S&P turns lower from these levels it will push Long term risk weight in reverse which signals Medium and Longh term risk for another major push town. No Change.

16 October: The Fed determines stock prices; until the party is over. And there won’t be a free lunch, even for crony participants. Stocks around the globe either stagnate since long, or are driven by the 20 or so major tech companies around the globe. The S&P and most other stock indices are making very visual what is meant by divergence. With US elections coming up in what is already a dirty trick environment one cannot possibly predict a short term price move unless you are part of a growing inner circle. We can only be served by the mechanics that analyze printed prices every hour, every day, every week every month and every year. As risk manager we cannot participate in what is likely to become the largest equity related graveyard ever since stocks were first traded in Amsterdam in 1602. Whether Covid plays a role in expediting the implicit outcome isn’t really that important. The Debt till we Die policy responsible for fake wealth creation will prove to be a historic high risk gamble that cannot but fail, even though the road to this failure is long enough to make people want to particpate. And this is where excess human greed will eventually be penalised. No change.


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
41.64 (42.78)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
49 (49) 42 (35) 58 (88)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 0% (0%)


23 October: Oil shows a rather inconclusive technical picture. In Daily time frame we notice a flat to lower developing risk without much price change. This means no clear short term direction objective. Weekly time frame risk is turning up from a lower risk level which potentially calls for higher prices. Monthly risk weight is turning down which can prove the dominant force. Hence very unclear and in an uncertain world economic environment oil investment should be avoided at this moment. No Change.

16 October: Oil prices on the daily chart appear to develop a correcting pattern from the downtrend that started. Weekly risk weight however continued to move lower without much price change. These conflicting patters make a medium term prediction rather hard thus are we looking at the Long term which continues to show a weaker pattern. There is an oil war going on whilst the world economy is showing all the signs of further contraction in 2021 and possibly beyond only to be saved by helicopter money. No Change.

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
12919 (11348)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
82 (80) 71 (58) 88 (75)
Allocation Limit(0%) Invested 0% (0%)


25 October: This 12919 close BTC price was taken on 25/10 at midday. After reaching 13,350 on early Sunday morning on surprisingly high volume for an overnight weekend hour, Bitcoin has dropped a mere 4% from that high. This just shows how crazy and also immature this market really is. 100% speculative in terms of trading activity and suspect of massive manipulation by the biggest stakeholders. Technically BTC could rally into channel resistance at 15,000, but we still favor that the gap at 2800 will be filled before this market ever has a chance of maturing into the Institutional space. The chance of a serious gap opening being filled is close to 100%, even if long after the event. Some influencer analysts are saying the institutional market will start taking serious interest in crypto and Bitcoin in particular, but that to us seems like a strange development as that should have happened already 6 years ago at least and initiated/managed by people with high risk awareness and good understanding of international asset investing. Doesn’t mean crazy markets cannot be highly profitable and crypto has been massivly profitable for a few influencers in finance. Then again, If enough people believe BTC goes to 100k or 1M, it may well happen, not considering other serious consequences of such market moves. Crypto in general however remains a highly interesting development and will surely mature and expand into a broadly acccepted investment class. No Change.

16 October: The crypto world enjoys participation from some of the brighest young brains in the fintech industry. Yet this is likely to also be their pitfall. The crypto currency market in its present form is completely misunderstood by normal people like politicians and therefore needs a much longer lead to become an acceptable playing field. Political Leaders in the driving seat cannot accept being overruled by this gambling circus beyond comprehension. Blockchain clearly is a revolutionary developm ent that deserves serious attention, but total speculative pricing is simply to disturbing for comfort. To early for serious integration into our daily lives. In our opinion this is clearly the case with Bitcoin. BTC probably has paved the way for a better, easier and faster alternative that hasn’t been born yet. No Change.


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0834 (0.0802)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
75 (73) 81 (68) 96 (70)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


25 October: BEST tokens represent what Bitpanda stands for. A secure exchange for anything crypto considered acceptable plus traditional precious metals trading. Bitpanda stores all crypto reserves off line which removes the need for cold wallet storage and this is what investors need to operate with minimum hassle and maximum safety. Yes there are a few extra login safeguards, but you cannot lose your assets. BEST had a fairly good week improving 4% to 0.0834 as of writing with all risk frames approaching high risk levels. As the long term risk tools have continued to move upward we are still seeking maturity of this young multi purpose asset where the first medium term divergence still needs to materialize. It currently looks like that first risk to price divergence could be bearish and many months away still. We remain very positive also, or maybe especially, in a market post monetary reset. No Change.

16 October: A European crypto exchange that issues a token that pays monthly volume return and offers a commission rebate represents real value and has the potential to become a strong alternative crypto currency to fiat money in the bank. Bitpanda’s BEST token is technically ready to become a universal link for all current crypto assets and future crypto assets backed any type of hard asset or by real businesses with real life products. BEST has been trading just above the E0.08 most of the week seeking fresh interest. Volumes remain very low. Risk weight in all times frames are weak uptrends. A relatively small market that will take time to mature. No Change.


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