Strong Bitcoin rally not widely supported | 31 July 2021
BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)||↑ (↓)|
|55 (54)||20 (15)||94 (14)|
|Allocation Limit(0%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
31 July close: In the two week since our last holiday update Bitcoin has covered the full price range consolidation that started on May 19. The boundaries of at range are $29,000 and $42,000. short term bearish Divergence gap between Daily (overbought) and Weekly (oversold) is 75%. This is too large for comfort whilst monthly is still at a mid range risk level and down. Most peer currencies have not made the same kind of rapid price recovery indicating a higher risk development for BTC. Some major crypto's did receover more than others as a few BTC related events hit the media during the period and they were largely positive, one being the Musk, Dorsey & Wood conference on July 21 which also marked the most recent BTC bottom. We would prefer to avoid any trading risk and these still unsettled levels and no change to our analysis that a higher risk exists for a much more substantial correction over time.
17 July close: As we've been saying for quite a while, this asset class breaths high risk and it still does. Question what to expect in the medium term to prevent making opportunistic investment decisions in Bitcoin or its peer group of altcoins and other native tokens.
Whilst our short term en medium term tools are very oversold, we haven't seen any bullish divergence which means that any correction upward, of any length or size should normally be followed by another deeper low than the $28,800 already recorded on 22 June. We have determined our own Elliott Wave count to see how the risk profile may develop. This is made visual in the below all time and 4 year Bitcoin charts. The ABC correction drawn can take any shape of course, but the end of a major primary trend having been set at $64,000 is now more likely looking at our preferred count between 2010 and 2014. EW analysts always include one or more alternate counts simply because it is such a hard method to use for short term and medium term predictions. Our count below at least supports our key technical observation that a long term bottom in this correction may be a long way a way, meaning bottom picking for anything else than very short term trading is the wrong choice. Price development for the peer group of coins is very similar, although we do not have enough price data to run a similar analysis.
Are private wallets released again into exchanges?
This seems to be the case this week and it simply means that 'professional' investors are human creatures of greed and fear, looking to avoid losses just in case. Whales would likely seek to dump BTC if the recent low is broken which could quickly erase another 50% of the entire crypto market capitalization from the present $1,3T to $650B or much lower. Whales may even help the down move as it would create an easier market opportunity to become an even stronger group of alternating helmsmen of the asset class.
The crypto market is not for every day investors and many, including self appointed crypto professionals are at risk of losing substantially. Whales are only those private individuals who bought Bitcoin in the tens and hundreds, not the likes of Saylor and Musk or any regulated or deregulated exchanges under central bank microscopes. No Change.
Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Bitpanda - BEST/EUR||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)|
|42 (44)||2 (3)||63 (4)|
|Allocation Limit(variable)||Invested||100% (100%)|
BEST token live price
View full width crypto charts for tablet and larger
Bitpanda BEST analysis
31 July 2021: BEST recovered just a little over 20% from the recent 20 July €0,50 cents low as most crypto's recorded a monthly low around that date. Right now BEST follow a similar pattern as most other crypto's, be it altcoins or native tokens. Our strategy however does not change. Earning a monthly return and cashing that in against fiat and eventually other tokens on our watchlist whilst Bitpanda continues to build a strong alternative exchange to fully non custodian crypto wallets and including physical precious metals and stocks. The strategy, since the first limited investment, has already created a zero risk remaining position.
In Cryto, anything seems possible and these markets may behave contrary to traditional technical analysis risk. Bitcoin may again lead the way to new explosive highs and if that happens it will drag everything else along at different speeds. If however the market behaves more like our recent forecast that a major lower low must first develop, we will likely see many new opportunities arise away from Bitcoin. We are in the camp where doubt about the future of crypto currency is leading and that has much to do with the adopted Bitcoin narratives in relation to fiat currency inflation and risk whilst that same narrative also compares risk with dollar value as in being able to make small and large purchases with Bitcoin. We do not believe that Bitcoin or Ethereum has any chance of ever becoming a mainstream currency. That is very different from being able to use crypto holdings for making any kind of credit card payment in real time. That exists already via several regulated exchanges like Bitpanda or a smart banking facility like Revolut.
17 July 2021: Our BEST portfolio has eroded slightly more than average whilst short and medium term indicators are very oversold on this week's close. Yet again, no bullish divergence, which means that any counter rally is more likely to be followed by another attempt to take the token to levels seen at the start of the year. €0,60-65 and €20-30 are realistic objectives with the former already touched as a possible short term correction bottom. We stick to our strategy of ticking the monthly rewards and looking for an opportunity to re-invest some of the strategic profits into strong fintech native tokens, staying away from popular digital currencies, unless an overwhelming buy signal appears.
S&P, Stock Indices, Equities, High Risk, No Limits
S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
|Standard & Poor 500||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)|
|98 (98)||91 (93)||87 (70)|
|Max Allocation 20% (20%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
30 July 2021 close: The past two weeks was again a repetition of market action seen so often. Market weakened from heavy overbought and high risk weight, rallied again and appears top be peaking once more. There are no rules anymore for this credit stimulus resulting behavior lead by central banks. One day... everyone in this market will remember that day. And in order to avoid the possibility of a very black day we will continue to forgo the opportunity and leave our assets in precious metals, crypto and cash. As the inflation wheel starts spinning there will be plenty opportunity left in the world of 'real money'.
16 July 2021 close: The very high risk weight overbought reading of late did put a lid on further market advance last week with all time frames turning down. This asset class may recover quickly again as it has done every time during the past 3 years and it doesn't change the high risk position equity markets have been in. For 10 years this has been a market for inner circle operators. Until the party is over and there is no realistic assumption to be made under the unprecedented circumstances that have influenced financial markets for such a long time. Hence our less profitable escape towards precious metals and some fintech. Anything related to the energy transition is likely to become the next class to concentrate on following an initial general draw down on world stocks market cap.