Crypto keeps taking center stage | 2 April
BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|84 (83)||88 (87)||78 (23)|
|Allocation Limit(0%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
3 April close: Q1 2021 was a major quarter for Bitcoin and most Altcoins showing some significant gains. Bitcoin 'only' and finally gained 95% for the quarter which was some experience with some large fluctuations along the road. This Long term picture is significant as we guage where this most popular of crypto's is going next. Because Bitcoin's price has hyperinflation characteristics, we show the log scale chart and the channel showing the upper resistance which at the end of 2021 is around BTC/$ 225,000.
Clearly visible on the Quarterly risk weight chart below is that Risk weight always peaked 1 or 2 quarters before a market price high was achieved following which Bitcoin always had a significant setback. On this chart we can see the first result for the new quarter which already has a potential to peak lower. This is important and different from the previous major bitcoin price peaks that occured in 2011, 2014 and 2017. As, especially smaller, investors become very active in the broader crypto space, the upside potential for Bitcoin generally looks less attractive.
This quarter-end week into Q2 saw Daily risk weight closing the gap with medium and long term risk weight and pushing the price higher after quarter-end window dressing. For practical purposes we end the week on Saturdays and the picture shows high risk. MOnthly Risk did turn up in the first 3 days of the month which offers 2 scenario's to match a similar picture as the previous 3 major price peaks.
Scenario 1 is a strong rally setting a new all time high anywhere between $62k and say $100k between now and June after which the market tanks.
Scenario 2 would be a volatile picture with net BTC price erosion into Q3 2021.
Both these scenario's have materialized in the past and are entirely feasible making BTC an unattractive proposition for wealth preservation investment at this level. No Change.
27 March 2021 close: BTC looks to be ending fairly strong this quarter and also appears to be struggling past 60k. We follow this market with great interest of course, yet all our tools still give high risk signals. Bitcoin has been leading most of the large and also smaller market cap altcoins most of the time and the current picture is quite mixed. Many new derivative blockchain techonologies are extremely exciting and there are many well funded companies creating a completely new world of banking and investing. But we have to remember that 99% of Crypto trading is purely speculative with near 100% of that trading related and referenced to legal tender fiat money. Even if Bitcoin is accepted by national authorities as money, they will always exchange immediately into their national legal tender, i.e Dollars and Euro etc. Bitcoin, in our opinion, will never be legal tender simply because it cannot be controlled even via Ethereum wrapped options, it is expensive and very slow to operate compared with SWIFT and SEPA. We follow many influencers in this space but not at all convinced by their popular narrative. Bitcoin is a rare commodity that is invisible which makes it highly speculative and cannot be an alternative to physical Gold. The good thing about Bitcoin is that is has created an enormous wealth basis for massive investment in startups creating new jobs in a rapidly developing and necessary industry. So, we only stay away from Bitcoin and concentrate on other altcoins connected to companies with very good potential.
Note: For the purpose of technical analysis we have chosen to end each week on Saturday at 24:00 hours Zurich time. Most online chart services are US based and ending the week on Sunday with weekdays ending at 24:00 in their own time zones. For the purpose of technical analysis using different time zones have near zero impact on the result, provided there is consistency.
Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Bitpanda - BEST/EUR||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↑)||↑ (↓)|
|76 (85)||88 (90)||55 (75)|
|Allocation Limit(30%)||Invested||100% (100%)|
BEST token live price
View full width crypto charts for tablet and larger
Bitpanda BEST analysis
3 April 2021: Bitpanda's Eco System Token (BEST) ended Q1 in style at €1.6001 compared with €0.1733 on 31 Dec 2020. A gain of 823% and as such becoming one of the absolute top performers in the entire crypto space. It did briefly touch €2,00 during a 2 minute low volume spell but that seems like an error almost. This strong performance also enhanced influenced our overall portfolio allocation to the extend that the crypto holdings have become a majority allocation pushing the precious metals down from 50 to 35%.
During the quarter we reallocated some paper profits into several smaller positions including, Polkadot, NEM, Stellar, Pantos (Bitpanda's Blockchain interoperability development token), MIOTA ETH and AVAX. Most of these tokens can now be traded based on our Short term, Medium term and Long term tools.
BEST's strong rally has also created a rapidly increasing fiat income stream from the rewards based on monthly volume trading, varying from 0.5 to 1% per month for investors. The basic strategy has been to take some rewards off the table every month for the past year at a Euro return equivalent to the BEST price received and to continue holding the core position.
The Crypto market as a whole is still a highly speculative environment and the aim of 'EyeforGold' is to allocate funds into crypto's with a strong business formula. Bitpanda is now the largest exchange in Europe with very strong financial backing. Primary markets we follow are listed here
April should be a very interesting month with at least 2 influencer events. One is the launch of Coinbase mid April where the latest target valuation has risen from 60 Billion to over 100 Billion dollars. That is staggering and as interest in this Public offering with a direct listing. Provided the listing is SEC approved a few things can happen. Existing shareholders may sell stock and benefit from the initial opportunity. The other is a massive interest and reallocation of broader Altcoins into Coinbase. BEST tokens can certainly benefit from a successful Coinbase launch whether immediately or later in the development cycle.
The second big influencer market event is Bitpanda's launch of fractional stock trading sometime in April as announces a few weeks back and making Bitpanda one of the very few pan-investment exchanges worldwide. For now Bitpanda's exchange is only open for accounts from European passport holders who need to be fully verified.
The PANTOS token PAN has seen 2 hikes out of the blue in March resulting in a monthly gain of nearly 200%. It almost suggests that someone has a hunch. The nature of investing in PAN is to support the development program and thus speculative although Bitpanda seems to be seeking a future monetary role for PAN as an instrument used to trade across blockchains. A small low risk punt if entered at current levels around €0,25 or lower. PAN briefly touched 0,31 last week.
27 March 2021: We started our crypto journey in Q2 2019 with some friends (average investors) checking out what on earth is going on in this new paradigm shift high tech financial industry. We did dabble a bit in BTC since 2014, very small but we never understood Bitcoin. We still don't even though that hugely volatile crypto currency wasn't to be ignored. We followed the news about Bitpanda since a few years and felt there is a very good chance that this company which had been on a strong and very focussed path of development could stand out. It now seems they even have a hard time keeping up with the operational and user interface service needs of their clients. This is to be expected if annual growth exceeds 100%. The BEST token has for the first time rallied past €1.00 with a 20% weekly gain outpacing most of its peers. This week's close means a 1200% increase over launch. This weeks rapid advance was clearly fuelled by the additional $170M funding round, allowing necessary accelerated investment in human resource. The April 2021 launch of fractional stock trading will immediately make Bitpanda a key player in the European investment industry and we eagerly await that launch. Besides, Bitpanda is a profitable enterprise. The BEST monthly rewards and commission discounts are a strong incentive and are likely to attract more investors as awareness grows. As many of the most interesting crypto currencies have seen strong price rallies since Q3 2020, any price corrections which can be huge into the 60 or 70%, often become technical buys. We already see several tokens maturing and react as expected to deeper analysis using basic charting techniques. To this end, we are diversifying very slowly into a number of high potential altcoins. Our BEST allocation remains largely unchanged where only the minimum 0.5% to maximum 1% per month BEST rewards are being re-invested. The markets we follow are listed here. We are aware that all these coins may and will at times suffer from substantial price corrections. No Change.
S&P, Stock Indices, Equities, High Risk, No Limits
S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
|Standard & Poor 500||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↑ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)|
|98 (94)||88 (84)||90 (70)|
|Max Allocation 20% (20%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
2 April 2021 close: There is no doubt that we have missed this entire market and unfortunately we are dealing with highly unusual monetary circumstances that keep moving massive amounts of dollars and equivalents into company equitiy. It is a totally free ride, yet our tools kept telling a different story. The beginning of the new month is no different. Everything is in overbought territory building another bearish divergence case in most most individual time scales. A mild short term bullish divergence between short and medium pushed S&P index prices higher by 1.6%, which in itself isn't very eventful either. It is the same with Precious metals which we own to protect, but becoming almost boring to own whilst the attention is on Crypto and with Non-Fungible tokens becoming the hottest tradeable items in the industry. Very hard to understand for most people.
An entirely new financial world is being created that has become near impossible to regulate because it takes even more years for national and international authorities like Central Banks to put all this into perspective.
As MMT is officially embraced by the power players, the outlook and timing of changes for our monetary system are impossible to predict. Our party line remains Precious Metals and the primary choice for protection whilst embracing the world of Blockchain which develops at the speed of light, with strong security and privacy protocols. It is unstoppable.
26 March 2021 close: S&P looks technically strong on Daily and Weekly charts. Risk weight has turned up and we should normally expect a new ATH the coming week. Long term risk weight is high as ever and as shorter term time scales meet up with Monthly this market is still at risk against all ods of starting a major downtrend. Equity indices simply do not offer a strong incentive. A little boring even. The broader market is supported by unlimited QE which is still the only safety net in our opinion. And that is high risk. No Change.
Brent Crude oil Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)||↓ (↑ )|
|83 (76)||72 (80)||39 (25)|
|Allocation Limit(10%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
2 April 2021 close: The new month has yet to start as we closed a short week in oil markets. The first April tick pushed Monthly risk weight up a bit, whereas Weekly has turned dowen with Daily in a neutral position. The 70 handle was touched on March 8, held in a 65-70 range for a week and then dropped sharply. The market still doesn't know where to pitch whilst a battle fore and against fossil fuels is going on in most Western Politcal debates.
With Weekly time scales showing massive risk to price bearish divergence on the 46 handle peak in August last year and the recent 71 handle peak this asset class is a relatively high risk where shorts should do better than longs technically spoken. Commodity price inflation may also develop a fresh advance in the near future. No change for now.
26 March 2021 close: Brent has a week searching for direction trading most week between 60 support and 64 resistance ending at the highs. With Monthly in strong uptrend, weekly at 80% Risk and Daily turning up at 25% from a clear bullish divergence level it could be interesting to have a small interest. What stops us is Hourly being overbought and turning down at the close on Friday. This risk requires waiting for hourly to come in line with Daily somewhere between 30 and 60% risk level and turning up to get involved. Therefore No change at this moment.