SWAP Gold for Platinum | Interim update 21 July

Swap Gold for Platinum

Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly
(LT-M) – Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) – Short Term Daily (ST-D) – and Hourly (not shown) data

(Previous week in brackets)

1808 (1797)
Au Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓)
Au % Risk
94 (93) 93 (93) 83 (82)
865 (826)
PT Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓) ↑ (↓)
Pt % Risk
55 (55) 80 (73) 73 (75)
Allocation Pt:30% Au:70% (Au 70%)

Gold/USD live price

Today we re-entered our 30% Gold for cash profit 10 days ago at 1802 into Platinum at $865. Platinum has been seriously weak for several years and there are good reasons not wishing to own the metal. However this weakness cannot historically be aligned with the strong advance of gold since 2018 and this weeks further expected advance in Silver. At this level and under these extreme circumstances Platinum will attract specualtive attention whilst it is a solid car industry replacement for the much more expensive metal Palladium. Because PT is less liquid than Gold or Silver, the white metal could advance very quickly to double its current value. Another strong reason for seeking refuge in ‘anything precious’ is the obvious weaker dollar trend at this moment in a struggling world economy with overload of debt and the fact that the Gold PT ratio equilibrium is more happy at the 1.0 level. In 2000 and 2008 Platinum was double the price of gold. We sometimes say: ‘buy if no one is interested and be patient’. Our risk management style deserves a more careful approach, but adding to metals on clear upward breaks is on the cards.

This gets us back to 100% in metals with Gold now at around 32%, Silver at 55% and Pt at 13% of the total precious metals portfolio.
We will add the Platinum update to this Gold and Silver blog section and our portfolio allocation represents well our technical outlook for precious metals and their internal price ratio’s.
Silver had a very strong boost today with a 6% rally hitting our first objective at 21.15. A break above this level for 3 days will target $35.00.

10 July:: Our 30% temporary exit at 1802 on Monday 13 July with a $470 net gain started a full week of GoldUSD price consolidation in a 25 dollar range between 1790 and 1815. As all time frames, including hourly with bearish divergence are at high risk levels we stay with our slightly reduced allocation. Risk of a more susbstantial correction is still on the cards possible, hence our minor protection. We still expect bearish divergence in the weekly and monthly time frames, but it is entirely possible that the consolidation around this important 1800 level may last several weeks or even months. Short term risk management favors re-entry on confirmation of an interim low for instance if daily risk weight divergenes strongly verses medium term Weekly and a new breakout to new 2020 highs which preferably is not the result of a rapidly deterioration dollar value. No change for now.

Platinum/USD live price


(Previous week in brackets)

19.25 (18.68)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
75 (75) 92 (90) 91 (85)
Allocation 100% (100%)

Silver/USD live price

Interim Update. Today’s strong 6% advance to 21.15 finally opens this market to a more realistic price discovery level. A break of the horizontal resistance at 21.15 for several days sets the next price target for Silver at 35.00 which is a strong reason to increase our total holding of precious metals. We remain fully invested in Silver which is now the largest precious metals holding in our portfolio complented with 32% gold at 13% Platinum as of today.

17 July: As with Gold/USD, silver shows signs of short term consolidation although the Long term monthly timeframe shows solid strength. Our 21.15 objective is still very much in play even though the 19 handle has set a fairly strong resistance level since September 2017. It may take a bit longer for Silver to drive through comfortably. Unlike physical gold, which is easier and cheaper to trade we hold on to our full silver allocation until risk in the primary uptrend which started, like gold, in December 2015 and hit a new unexpected quick price low in March this year shows bearish divergence in either the Medium term or Long term time frames

GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

93.27 (95.72)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
40 (40) 10 (13) 10 (14)
Allocation 50/50 AU/AG (50/50 AU/AG)

Gold/Silver Ratio live price

The Gold/Silver ratio allocation is a direct result of the risk allocation to the individual metals, but also shows how we seen an opportunity to allocate more to Gold or Silver in the metals space. As we have seen with Platinum, that metal has lost all its shine even though it is the Rolls Royce of precious metals. Some day in the future we shall not be surprised to see PT rise above the level of gold again whilst having lost so m uc h more than we expected a few years ago. Historically platinum must still represent a tremendous opportunity as does Silver at this level of ratio well above the equilibrium of closer to 60. Platinum is a clear buy if it closes above 900 with an immediate $2000 target. As it may be difficult to get hold of physical PT some allocation to this metal can be part of the the total metals allocation. Long term risk appears low and opportunity high. Physical pt numismatics, if at all available and at a much higher price, is also a worthwhile wealth preservation commodity. No change to keep a level balance between gold and Silver, and or some Platinum, which a bias towards silver.

10 July: Gold/Silver ratio support at around 80 and then 64 is where we aim this ratio to go. Both Daily and Weekly risk is getting oversold and are expected to first show intermediate bullish divergence to seriously challenge the current Gold/Silver ratio downtrend that started after peaking at 128 on 18 March, 2020. In line with our 30% Gold/USD allocation reduction and staying full with Silver/USD the ration clearly leans in favor of Silver running up faster than Gold in the next few months. No change

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